000 AXNT20 KNHC 141106 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 606 AM EST WED DEC 14 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N08W to 03N12W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N12W to 02N16W to 05N24W to 02N44W. A surface trough is analyzed at the western extent of the ITCZ along 47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-11N between 13W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad troughing aloft is noted over much of the eastern CONUS and Gulf basin this morning with water vapor imagery indicating a mid-level shortwave trough embedded within the overall flow in the vicinity of 32N82W. The shortwave supports a 1014 mb low centered across central Georgia with the associated cold front extending W-SW to Lake Pontchartrain then to the Texas coast near Corpus Christi. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from the Florida Big Bend region W-SW to near 28N90W. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin remains under the influence of surface ridging anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 25N86W. The ridge axis extends from the southern Florida peninsula through the high center to the east-central coast of Mexico and the SW Gulf waters. Mostly clear skies prevail elsewhere outside of the frontal boundary with light to gentle anticyclonic winds. By Wednesday night the cold front will begin pushing E-SE through early Friday. Brief moderate to fresh N-NE winds are expected across the NW Gulf waters Thursday morning in wake of the front with the front shifting E of the basin entirely by early Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level anticyclonic circulation is anchored over the eastern Caribbean near 14N63W with water vapor imagery indicating mostly dry air E of 77W and increased cloudiness and moisture W of 77W. As tropical moisture advects generally northward within the western periphery of the upper level ridging over the western Caribbean...widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring mostly S of 20N between 76W-89W...including portions of Central America and the NW Caribbean waters. The close proximity to the Monsoon Trough axis along 10N is also providing further enhancement to stronger convection this morning S of 12N between 78W-85W. Farther east...mostly clear skies prevail with only a few quick-moving low-topped isolated showers occurring in the vicinity of the Windward islands and adjacent coastal waters of Hispaniola. Trades are expected to persist in the moderate to fresh range through the remainder of the week...increasing into fresh to strong levels Saturday as strong high pressure anchors to the north across the SW North Atlc waters. ...HISPANIOLA... Passing isolated showers are noted across the adjacent coastal waters associated with very shallow moisture. Moderate to fresh trade winds are also occurring across the island and the adjacent coastal waters. These conditions are expected through Saturday when surface high pressure will build in across the region N of the island and increase winds to fresh to strong breeze levels. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the SW North Atlc region this morning with mid-level shortwave energy noted on water vapor imagery progressing eastward over the SE CONUS. This troughing supports a weak area of low pressure focused on a 1010 mb low centered off the coast of North Carolina near 36N72W with the associated cold front extending SW to the South Carolina border and inland across central Georgia. Surface ridging prevails to the south with axis extending from the central Atlc near 30N50W to the NW Bahamas and southern Florida peninsula. Only a few isolated showers and tstms are noted N of 30N between 64W-70W and N of 30N W of 75W on satellite imagery. Farther east...a surface ridge influences much of the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 34N26W. A weakening cold front extends into the discussion area near 32N16W SW to 27N34W. Isolated showers are possible within 90 nm either side of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN