000 AXNT20 KNHC 131741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1241 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across the African continentreachingthe easter Atlantic near 08N15W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 06N30W to 06N48W. A surface trough is embedded within the ITCZ extending from 09N40W to 06N40W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N-07N between 13W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 21N97W and a 1019 mb high centered near 29N85W. A surface trough extends across the northwest Gulf from 27N97W to 29N96W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for a cold front to enter the northwest Gulf enhancing winds/seas/convection. Brief fresh to strong northeasterly winds are expected behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper-level anticyclonic circulation is anchored over the central Caribbean near 17N74W. Water vapor imagery depicts mostly dry air east of 80W and increased cloudiness and moisture west of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is observed west of 81W affecting portions of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, as well as the Yucatan Peninsula. To the east, mostly clear skies prevail with only a few quick-moving low-topped isolated showers mostly in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and adjacent coastal waters of Hispaniola. Trades are expected to remain in the fresh to strong range through early Wednesday and then decrease slightly as the regional pressure gradient relaxes across the basin. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated quick-moving showers are noted across adjacent coastal waters associated with shallow moisture. Fresh to strong trade winds are occurring across the island and the adjacent coastal waters due to a strong high pressure anchored in the central Atlantic. These conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends north of our area of discussion enhancing winds/seas across the western Atlantic mainly west of 70W. A broad area of high pressure prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 34N43W. A dissipating stationary front extends south of the surface high from 23N50W to 28N33W then a cold front extends from that point to 31N24W. Isolated showers are observed along the cold front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA