000 AXNT20 KNHC 111725 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1225 PM EST SUN DEC 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across the African Continent reaching the Atlantic Ocean from 08N13W to 07N20W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 04N30W. A surface trough is west of the ITCZ extending from 05N36W to 01N37W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the ITCZ and near the surface trough between 31W- 47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high centered over eastern Mexico near 22N99W and a 1035 mb high centered northeast of the area near 38N75W. Surface observations indicated a surface trough across the Bay of Campeche extending from 24N97W to 21N96W to 19N94W. Isolated convection is observed along and near this trough between 93W-97W. A stationary front extends across the Yucatan channel and Florida Straits from 21N87W to 23N83W to 24N80W. Broken top overcast low and mid level cloudiness with embedded showers are noted within 100 nm north of this front mainly affecting portions of South Florida and the Keys. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across the basin. Expect during the next 24hours for the stationary front to weaken and dissipate. Winds will diminish across the basin as the surface ridge shifts eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... The stationary front described above in the Gulf of Mexico section extends across the Yucatan Channel enhancing winds/seas across the far west Caribbean. Over the central portion of the basin, a 1009 mb surface low es centered near 11N81W, with surface trough extending to the east of it from 17N76W to 11N78W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed near these features affecting the area south of 16N between 77W-86W. Locally heavy rain is currently occurring over portions of Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. This activity could generate flash flooding and mudslides. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin except fresh to strong winds south of 16N between 72W- 80W. Expect through the next 24 hours for the stationary front to begin weakening and then dissipate. The surface low in the south- central Caribbean will continue moving west over Central America then entering the eastern Pacific Ocean. ...HISPANIOLA... An inverted trough is currently north of the island supporting cloudiness and isolated showers affecting the northern adjacent waters. This activity will continue through the next 24 hours as the trough moves west. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across the western and central Atlantic from 24N80W to 25N63W to 31N46W. Isolated showers are observed within 80 nm to the north of the front affecting portions of South Florida and the Bahamas. A surface trough was analyzed north of Hispaniola extending from 23N69W to 20N70W. Scattered showers are observed along this trough. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 29N36W and a 1026 mb high near 33N25W. Expect for the stationary front to start weakening during the next 24 hours. A surface ridge will build in the western Atlantic. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA