000 AXNT20 KNHC 091730 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1229 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale-Force winds in the Gulf of Mexico... A cold front extends across the southern Gulf of Mexico from 19N94W to 22N93W to 24N80W. A 1041 mb surface high pressure is centered near 37N96W. The pressure gradient behind the front is inducing gale force winds from 18N-25N and west of 90W with seas up to 20 ft mainly west of 96W. Please read the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across the African Continent reaching the Atlantic near 06N12W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N22W to 06N37W. A surface trough extends west of the ITCZ from 08N41W to 03N42W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N-09N between 12W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Latest scatterometer data depicts gale force winds already occurring over the western Gulf. Please refer to the section above for details. A cold front extends from 19N94W to 22N93W to 24N80W. Cloudiness and isolated moderate convection is observed along and north of the front affecting the majority of the basin. Moderate northerly winds prevail across the eastern Gulf waters. The front is expected to move slowly southward then become stationary across the Florida Straits and northwest Cuba this weekend with northerly winds diminishing below gale force in the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level anticyclone centered over eastern Honduras near 15N85W while an upper-level low centered near 16N73W. At the surface, the Monsoon Trough extends along 10N with scattered moderate convection between 77W-82W. A surface trough extends south of Hispaniola 18N72W to 13N73W with scattered moderate convection between 64W-74W. This trough is supported by the upper-level low described previously. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds across the central portion of the basin between 68W-75W while moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Fresh to occasional strong trades are expected across the south-central Caribbean mainly north of Colombia through late Saturday with trades increasing slightly through the remainder of the weekend as the pressure gradient across the basin strengthens. A frontal boundary will approach the western Caribbean enhancing winds/seas. The front will become stationary along the Yucatan Channel and through north-western Cuba. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. A surface trough extends south of the island supported by an upper-level low currently centered near 16N73W. These features will enhance showers across the area in the afternoon/ evening hours. Fair conditions are expected through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 25N80W to 31N69W. Cloudiness and isolated convection is observed along and northwest of the front. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1021 mb surface high centered near 24N56W and a 1022 mb high centered near 32N31W. A pair of weakening frontal boundaries were analyzed north of the ridge. The first is a dissipating front from 27N72W to 28N58W to 27N48W then transitions to a dissipating cold front from that point to a 1016 mb surface low near 32N40W. The next dissipating cold front extends from 26N32W to 31N24W. No significant convection is related to any of these fronts. Expect for the cold front in the west Atlantic to continue moving east. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA