000 AXNT20 KNHC 082353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 653 PM EST THU DEC 8 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends across the NW Gulf waters from 27N90W to 26N94.5W to the NE Mexico coast near Tampico. Strong 1044 MB high pressure over Kansas continues building in from the NNW generating a strengthened pressure gradient between the ridging and a 1014 mb low centered near 26N94.5W. Gale force northerly winds of 35 kt...with higher gusts to 40-45 kt are occurring generally N of the frontal boundary and are expected to persist through late Saturday W of the front along the coast of Mexico. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N13W to 07N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N15W to 04N30W to the Equator near 44W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 25W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad west-southwesterly flow aloft prevails between broad long wave troughing over the eastern CONUS and an upper level anticyclonic circulation centered over Central America near 15N84W. The troughing aloft supports two fronts analyzed across the basin this afternoon. A stationary front lingers from the Straits of Florida across the Gulf along 24N through 24N88W becoming diffuse to 23N95W. Widely scattered showers and tstms are occurring along and within 90 NM N of this front between 84W and 95W. The second front is a strong cold front analyzed from near Fort Myers Florida through 27N90W to 26N94.5W to the NE Mexico coast near Tampico. Strong high pressure continues to build across Texas and the SE CONUS generating the special features gale force winds expected through late Saturday across the far western waters. Buoys and a 1648 UTC ASCAT pass confirmed N-NE winds of 30-35 kt off the Texas coast. The front is expected to slip southward across the Gulf later in the weekend with N winds diminishing below gale force in the W Gulf and veering more the ENE late Saturday and ESE on Sunday across the remainder of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Much of the Caribbean basin remains fairly tranquil this evening as water vapor imagery indicates a very dry and stable environment aloft between an upper level anticyclone centered near 15N84W and an upper level low centered near 15N71W. At the surface...mostly clear skies prevail...however the Monsoon Trough extends along 10N with scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring from 08N-12N between 76W and the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Scattered showers and tstms are also occurring across the eastern Caribbean and southern Lesser Antilles as a surface trough extends from NE Venezuela near 10N65W to 17N62W. The widespread shower and tstms activity was being enhanced by upper level diffluence occurring E of the upper low near 15N71W. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trade winds are occurring across the basin S of 18N and E of 80W with locally strong winds within 90 NM of the coast of Colombia. Fresh to occasional strong trades are expected to persist through late Saturday with trades increasing slightly through the remainder of the weekend as the pressure gradient across the basin strengthens. ...HISPANIOLA... Overall fair skies prevail this evening over the area as dry and stable NE winds aloft persist due to an upper level cyclone centered near 15N71W. These fair conditions are expected through the remainder of the week into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Generally westerly flow aloft prevails over much of the SW North Atlc and central Atlc waters W of 50W this evening. This is providing fairly progressive and benign weather pattern across much of the forecast waters...however a lingering cold front extends from a 1011 MB low near 32N45W WSW through 29N55W to 26N75W and becomes stationary to the Florida Straits near 25N80W. A few isolated showers are occurring with the front...most notably across the Florida Straits and NW Bahamas. To the west of this front...another cold front extends from a 1016 mb low centered near 34N74W SW to the Florida peninsula just N of Vero Beach. This front will begin to advance SE as it becomes invigorated by an arctic front resulting in stronger N-NW winds by Friday morning N of 30N W of the boundary. Otherwise...over the eastern Atlc...a broad middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery N of 26N between 20W and 40W. This trough supports a cold front extending through 32N25W SW through 28N30W to 27N39W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring generally N of 27N between the front and 19W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 25N60W. The ridge axis extends generally east-west along 24N/25N and was suppressed further south. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Cobb