000 AXNT20 KNHC 081752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1252 PM EST THU DEC 8 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A stationary front extends across the NW Gulf waters from 28N90W to 28N95W to the NW Mexico coast near 25N97W. Strong high pressure continues building in from the N-NW across the central CONUS generating a strengthened pressure gradient between the ridging and a 1014 mb low centered near 25N96W. Near gale to gale force N-NE winds are occurring generally N of the frontal boundary and are expected to persist through Saturday W of the front along the coast of Mexico. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 07N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N17W to 04N30W to the Equator near 44W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 11W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Southwesterly flow aloft prevails between broad longwave troughing over the CONUS and an upper level anticyclonic circulation centered over Central America near 15N84W. The troughing aloft supports two fronts analyzed across the basin this afternoon. A stationary front lingers across the Straits of Florida across the Gulf along 24N into a 1014 mb low centered near 25N96W. Widely scattered showers and tstms are occurring generally N of this front W of 84W. The second front is a cold front analyzed from the central Florida peninsula near 27N82W W to 28N90W then becomes stationary to the NE Mexico coast near 25N98W. Strong high pressure continues to build across Texas and the SE CONUS generating the special features near gale to gale force winds expected through Saturday across the western waters. For the remainder of the week strong to near gale force NE winds will prevail as the front eventually moves SE of the basin by Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Much of the Caribbean basin remains fairly tranquil this afternoon as water vapor imagery indicates a mostly dry and stable environment aloft between an upper level anticyclone centered near 15N84W and an upper level low centered near 15N70W. At the surface...mostly clear skies prevail...however the Monsoon Trough extends along 10N with scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring from 08N-13N between 76W-85W. Scattered showers and tstms are also occurring across the eastern Caribbean and Lesser Antilles as a surface trough extends from NE Venezuela near 11N63W to 18N60W. This activity remains E of a line from Anguilla to Curacao. Otherwise...trade winds remain generally in the moderate to fresh breeze levels with the exception of the waters off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to occasional strong trades are expected to persist through Friday night into Saturday with trades increasing slightly through the remainder of the weekend as the pressure gradient across the basin strengthens. ...HISPANIOLA... Clear skies prevail this afternoon as dry and stable NE winds aloft persist due to an upper level cyclone centered near 15N70W. These fair conditions are expected through the remainder of the week into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Generally westerly flow aloft prevails over much of the SW North Atlc and central Atlc waters W of 50W this afternoon. This is providing fairly progressive and benign weather pattern across much of the forecast waters...however a lingering cold front extends from 32N46W W-SW to 30N60W to 27N74W and becomes stationary to the Florida Straits near 25N80W. A few isolated showers are occurring with the front...most notably across the Florida Straits and NW Bahamas. To the west of this front...another cold front extends from a 1016 mb low centered near 34N76W SW to the Florida peninsula near 28N80W. This front will remain weak through the evening hours and become invigorated by an arctic front resulting in stronger N-NW winds by Friday morning N of 30N W of the boundary. Otherwise...over the eastern Atlc...a middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 27N36W supporting a cold front extending through 32N26W SW to 28N38W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring generally N of 27N between the front and 19W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 25N59W. The ridge axis extends generally east-west along 24N/25N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN