000 AXNT20 KNHC 071650 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1150 AM EST WED DEC 7 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning that will generate near gale to gale force N-NE winds by 09/0000 UTC W of the front along the coast of Mexico. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 06N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N16W to 06N20W to 03N43W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-06N between 06W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N between 27W-48W. A surface trough is analyzed W of the ITCZ from 06N55W to 16N55W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N-15N between 45W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Southwesterly flow aloft prevails between very broad longwave troughing over the CONUS and an upper level anticyclonic circulation centered over the NW Caribbean Sea near 17N83W. The troughing aloft supports two fronts analyzed across the basin this afternoon. A cold front lingers across the southern Florida peninsula and into the SE Gulf near 25N83W. The front then becomes stationary W-SW to 21N95W. A pre-frontal surface trough remains from the front near 22N89W to 19N92W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 60 nm either side of the front E of 88W...including portions of the Florida Keys and Straits of Florida. The second front is a cold front analyzed from the Florida panhandle near 30N85W SW to 29N90W then becomes stationary to the Texas coast near Brownsville. This front remains generally precipitation-free and continues to weaken gradually as high pressure maintains influence across much of the Gulf waters. By late Wednesday night into Thursday...a stronger cold front is expected to move off the Texas and Louisiana coast introducing the strong to gale force N-NE winds mentioned above in the special features section. For the remainder of the week strong to near gale force NE winds will prevail as the front eventually moves SE of the basin by Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Much of the Caribbean basin remains fairly tranquil this afternoon as water vapor imagery indicates a mostly dry and stable environment aloft between an upper level anticyclone centered near 17N83W and a broad upper level low centered near 14N69W. At the surface...mostly clear skies prevail...however the Monsoon Trough extends along 09N with scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring from 08N-11N between 76W-82W. Isolated showers and tstms are also beginning to impact Trinidad and Tobago...and NE Venezuela this afternoon as a surface trough analyzed along 55W increases moisture and instability as the area of energy moves westward during the next few days. Otherwise...trade winds remain generally in the moderate to fresh breeze levels with the exception of the waters off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to occasional strong trades are expected to persist through Friday night into Saturday. ...HISPANIOLA... Clear skies prevail this afternoon as dry and stable N-NE winds aloft persist due to an upper level anticyclone centered near 17N83W. These fair conditions are expected through the remainder of the week into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Generally westerly flow aloft prevails over much of the SW North Atlc and central Atlc waters W of 50W this afternoon. This is providing fairly benign weather pattern across much of the forecast waters...however a lingering cold front extends from 32N71W SW to the NW Bahamas to the southern Florida peninsula near 26N80W. Few showers are occurring with the front...however widely scattered showers are noted across the Florida Straits from 23N- 25N between 76W-82W. Otherwise...over the eastern Atlc...a middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 38N36W supporting a deepening 982 surface low centered near 37N37W. The associated cold front extends through 32N41W W-SW to 30N54W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring within 90 nm either side of the front. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 25N60W. The ridge axis extends generally east-west along 25N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN