000 AXNT20 KNHC 062343 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 643 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being forecast for the area that is called IRVING through the next 24 hours. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 07N12W to 05N27W to 06N47W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N-10N between 20W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level low over N Minnesota extends a trough SE to the NE Gulf coastline, supporting a frontal system that extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N84W to 24N90W as a cold front then from that point to 19N95W as a stationary front. Ahead of the cold front, a squall line extends from 28N83W to 25N87W. The convection associated to the squall line is observed from 24N-27N and east of 85W affecting the Florida Peninsula. West of the fronts, a 1015 mb high is centered near 25N95W, which along with strong dry air subsidence from aloft supports stable and fair weather. This high also supports a light and variable wind flow across the western portion of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds north of 28N west of the cold front to 91W with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh southwesterly flow dominates the area east of the front. The cold front will continue moving across the Gulf stalling by early Wednesday when fresh to strong flow will diminish. A new cold front will move into the northwest Gulf by Wednesday night followed by strong to gale force winds prevailing through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper-level anticyclone centered south of Cuba and extends across most of the basin west of 70W. Fair weather prevails across the basin at this time except near the Monsoon Trough that extends along 10N between 76W-83W with isolated showers. The surface high centered in the central Atlantic tightens the gradient across the central Caribbean supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds between 70W and 80W. These winds are expected to continue during the next 24-48 hours as a surface low develops north of Colombia. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades across the remainder of the basin. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevail across the island. Isolated showers are expected to develop on Wednesday in the afternoon hours due to diurnal heating and orographic lifting. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A squall line extends from the Florida Peninsula to 29N81W to 31N80W. The convection related to this squall line extends from 27N-31N and west of 75W. To the east, a 1020 mb surface high is centered near 26N64W. A weakening stationary front extends from 19N62W to 24N43W then becomes a cold front from that point to 30N28W. Gale force winds are forecast near the front. Please refer to the section above for details. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 26N between 23W-27W. A surface trough extends to the west of the ITCZ from 15N50W to 07N51W with isolated showers along it. Expect for the frontal system in the central Atlantic to weaken and dissipate by Thursday. A new cold front will enter the west Atlantic tonight and stall and weaken in this area. Another cold front to move off the SE CONUS by the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA