000 AXNT20 KNHC 061754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1254 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being forecast for the area that is called IRVING. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 07/1200 UTC, consists of: the threat of cyclonic gale to storm in IRVING. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from Sierra Leone, Africa near 07N12W to 05N20W to 04N36W to 06N46W. Scattered heavy showers are from 01N-09N between 15W and 45W. West of the ITCZ, a surface trough extends from 14N49W to 05N50W with scattered heavy showers within 360 nm east of its axis. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A middle level low over N Minnesota extends a trough SE to the NE Gulf coastline, which is supporting a cold front from the Florida Panhandle near 30N84W to 26N87W to 23N90W where it stalls SW to the Bay of Campeche near 18N95W. Ahead of the front, a squall line with heavy showers and tstms within 30 nm of its axis extends from Jacksonville SW to 29N82W to 25N86W. Low level moisture convergence supports isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the frontal boundary. West of the front, a 1015 mb high is centered near 24N95W, which along with strong dry air subsidence from aloft support stable and fair weather conditions. The high also provides light variable flow across most of the W basin. In the NE Gulf, fresh to strong W winds are N of 28N W of the cold front to 91W with seas to 8 ft. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SW flow dominate E of the front. The cold front will continue to move across the Gulf today and will stall Wednesday morning when fresh to strong flow will diminish. A new cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Wednesday night followed by strong to gale force winds through the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level anticyclone is anchored W of Jamaica near 18N81W along with strong dry air subsidence, which leaves the NW basin with isolated passing showers being supported by middle level diffluence and shallow moisture as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. In the SW Caribbean, the monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica and Panama to a 1010 mb low off the coast of Colombia near 10N76W. Scattered showers associated with these features is S of 11N. Lingering moisture associated with the passage of a frontal boundary N of the Greater Antilles support scattered to isolated showers across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands. An upper level low in the SE basin and shallow moisture support similar shower activity across the Windward Islands and adjacent waters. High pressure in the SW Atlc tightens the gradient in the central basin to support fresh to strong NE to E winds from 11N to 14N between 70W and 76W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. These winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean the next two days along with the low center off Colombia. ...HISPANIOLA... Lingering moisture associated with the passage of a frontal boundary N of the Island support scattered to isolated showers on both Haiti and Dominican Republic. This shower activity is forecast to cease tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Heavy showers and tstms are off the coast of NE Florida associated with a squall line ahead of a frontal boundary in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface high pressure anchored by a 1021 mb high near 26N65W covers the SW N Atlc waters and provide fair and stable conditions. Ahead of the ridge, a cold front extends from 31N28W to 24N40W where it stalls and weaken along 22N50W to 18N60W. Scattered heavy showers are N of 24N between 24W and 32W. Surface ridging continue to cover the remainder NE Atlc waters being anchored by a 1031 mb high over Spain. The central Atlantic cold front will weaken and dissipate Thursday. A new cold front will move into the west Atlantic tonight, which will stall and weaken in the SW basin by Thursday morning ahead of another cold front to move off the SE CONUS. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos