000 AXNT20 KNHC 050547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST MON DEC 5 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning...The cold front is currently in the central Atlantic through 32N39W along 25N52W to 23N63W with southwest gale force winds north of 30N east of the front to 37W. These winds will diminish later this morning at 05/1200 UTC. Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough is analyzed inland over Africa. The ITCZ is analyzed from 7N15W along 6N27W 4N37W to 2N41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 1N-4N east of 2W across the Prime Meridian and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 22W-30W. Small clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 1N-6N between 9W-22W. Large clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 6N-9N between 34W-43W and from 8N-12N between 41W-47W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 6N to south of the equator between 35W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper ridge dominates the Gulf again tonight anchored in the Caribbean giving the Gulf southwest flow aloft. A deep layered trough over the western CONUS is digging south to over most of Mexico further amplifying the upper ridge as it shift eastward. A stationary front extends from a 1008 mb low near 26N95W south to the coast of Mexico near Tuxpan and northeast from the low along 28N91W across the Mississippi Delta to inland over the north Gulf coast near Pensacola, Florida. The front is beginning to show signs of becoming a cold front as it shifts eastward with scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are west of a line from Panama City, Florida along 27N90W to 25N95W then south to Tuxpan, Mexico. A shortwave upper trough is in the southeast Gulf along 87W from the Yucatan Channel near 22N to 25N generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm of a line from 26N89W to over west Cuba near 22N84W. The front will move eastward through Monday and Tuesday. A new strong cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Wednesday night followed by gale force winds through the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored over Costa Rica/Nicaragua dominating the Caribbean again tonight. Clusters of scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of a line from 16N82W to over west Cuba and the Yucatan Channel near 22N84W. This is leaving the remainder of the Caribbean with mostly clear skies tonight. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia and northwest Venezuela through Thursday morning. Similar winds are expected in the west Caribbean Monday night through Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Afternoon/evening isolated showers and possible thunderstorms are beginning to diminish across the island. Lingering moisture and easterly trade winds could produce afternoon or evening isolated showers and thunderstorms. This activity could continue through Monday night as the central Atlantic front drapes across the north portion of the island. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends over the west into the central Atlantic. The surface ridge covers the west Atlantic anchored by a 1022 mb high near 30N72W. An upper trough over the central Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends through 32N39W along 25N52W to 23N63W where it dissipates in the Bahama Islands near 24N75W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 120/150 nm east of the front east of 50W. A weak surface trough is south of the front extending from 24N52W to Puerto Rico near 18N67W. A surface ridge covers the central and eastern Atlantic north of 15N east of 40W anchored by a 1019 mb high near 27N25W. A surface trough is south of the surface ridge extending from 18N45W along 14N48W to 10N48W. The central Atlantic cold front will reach from 32N32W along 23N46W to 21N71W by Monday night and into the east Atlantic Tuesday night. A new cold front will move into the west Atlantic Tuesday night reaching from Bermuda to south Florida Wednesday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW