000 AXNT20 KNHC 041805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning...A cold front extends from 31N47W to 24N68W with southwest gale force winds north of 30N east of the front to 42W. Gale winds are forecast to diminish by Monday early afternoon. Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 05N10W to 13N20W where it transitions to the ITCZ, which continues to 13N30W to 16N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01S to 09N between 25W and 40W. Isolated showers are within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... Southwesterly flow associated with a broad middle to upper ridge anchored over the Caribbean continue to cover the Gulf waters aloft. Low level moisture advected from the Caribbean converges along a stationary front that extends from a 1013 mb low S of Louisiana near 29N90W to 26N95W to 23N98W. Upper level diffluence in the NW Gulf support scattered heavy showers and tstms W of the frontal boundary. Fog and hazy conditions are being reported within 120 nm E of the front. Fresh to strong E-SE winds are N of 27N E of 88W. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE flow dominate across the remainder basin along with fair weather conditions supported by strong dry air subsidence. The front will meander over the northwest Gulf through tonight. A cold front will move across the Gulf Monday and Tuesday followed by fresh to strong winds through Monday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle and upper level ridging continue across the Caribbean with strong dry air subsidence in the central and eastern basin that support mainly stable and fair weather conditions. In the SW N Atlantic, a pre-frontal surface trough extends from 25N53W to 21N63W to the Mona Passage with isolated showers and tstms within 90 nm either side of its axis extending to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. CIRA LPW and SSMI TPW imagery show abundant moisture in the W Caribbean that along with upper level diffluence support heavy showers and tstms from 12N to 22N W of 76W, except for the Gulf of Honduras and Belize adjacent waters. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia and northwest Venezuela through mid week. Similar winds are expected in the west Caribbean Monday night through Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough in the SW Atlantic extends from 25N53W to 21N63W to the Mona Passage, which along with low level moisture in the region support isolated showers and tstms over Dominican Republic and adjacent waters this evening. Showers and tstms will continue through Tuesday as the tail of a cold front moves over the northern Island. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface high pressure anchored over the NE CONUS extends a ridge SE across the SW N Atlantic waters, thus providing fair and stable conditions. Ahead of the ridge, a cold front extends from 31N44W to 26N58W to 24N68W where it becomes a dissipating stationary front to 24N80W. This front is transecting an area of dry air, thus no shower activity is noted. A pre-frontal surface trough extends from 25N53W to 21N63W to the Mona Passage with isolated showers and tstms within 90 nm either side of its axis extending to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. NW of the ITCZ, three surface troughs are noted, one from 19N43W to 10N45W with scattered heavy showers within 210 nm E of its axis. The other troughs extend from 18N51W to 11N54W and from 18N63W to 15N59W with no convection. A surface ridge covers the remainder NE Atlc anchored by a 1019 mb high near 23N32W. See Special Features above. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos