000 AXNT20 KNHC 041101 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning...The cold front currently in the west Atlantic will move to 32N47W along 25N65W to 24N77W with southwest gale force winds north of 30N east of the front to 42W starting this morning at 04/1200 UTC. These winds will shift east with the front through Monday morning at 05/1200 UTC. Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 8N12W to 4N20W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues along 3N27W 4N37W 4N43W to South America near 2N51W. Small clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 60 nm of a line from 00N1W to 3N10W. Large clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 4N-8N between 10W-15W and from the equator to 9N between 26W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper ridge dominates the Gulf again tonight anchored in the Caribbean giving the Gulf southwest to west flow aloft. A deep layered trough over the western CONUS is digging south to over western Mexico further amplifying the upper ridge. A stationary front extends across northeast Mexico into the Gulf near 24N97W along 27N95W to inland over Louisiana near 30N92W then east to the Mississippi Delta. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are west of the front to inland over Texas and Louisiana. The front will meander over the northwest Gulf through tonight. A cold front will move across the Gulf Monday and Tuesday followed by fresh to strong winds through Monday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored over western Panama dominating the Caribbean again this morning. Clusters of numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of a line from Colombia near 11N74W along 15N80W to 20N85W with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 18N-20N between 75W-80W. This is leaving the remainder of the Caribbean with clear skies this morning. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia and northwest Venezuela through mid week. Similar winds are expected in the west Caribbean Monday night through Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Some isolated showers remain over the southwest portion of the island this morning. Lingering moisture and easterly trade winds could continue to produce isolated showers across the island through the tonight with some possible clearing on Monday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends over the west Atlantic. The surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high over Ohio covers the west Atlantic west of 65W. An upper trough over the central Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends through 32N47W along 28N56W to 26N62W where it begins to dissipate to 25N73W then continues to dissipate as a stationary front across the Bahama Islands to 24N80W in the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers are within 90/120 nm east of the front north of 30N. A weak surface trough is south of the front extending from 26N58W to 23N62W moving east with a second surface trough from 23N65W to just north of the Mona Passage near 19N67W moving west. Scattered showers possible isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm east of both troughs. A surface ridge covers the central and eastern Atlantic north of 20N anchored by a 1018 mb high near 23N33W. A surface trough is south of the surface ridge extending from 18N51W to near 11N52W. This surface trough is beneath the upper trough that covers the central Atlantic with an east/west upper ridge to the east. The upper ridge is providing difflunce aloft to generate clusters of scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 8N-20N between 35W-46W. The west Atlantic cold front will reach from 32N43W along 24N65W to 24N80W by late today with southwest gale force winds east of the front through Monday morning. See Special Features above. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW