000 AXNT20 KNHC 032339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 639 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Very broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the central Atlc waters supporting a cold front analyzed from 32N52W SW to near the NW Bahamas. The front is expected to generate near gale to gale force SW winds late Saturday night into early Sunday across the waters N of 30N east of the front to 42W. The near gale to gale force conditions are expected to persist through Monday. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to 06N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N21W to 05N27W to 06N38W to 07N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N between the Prime Meridian and 10W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-18N between 31W- 48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Southwesterly flow aloft prevails ahead of an approaching middle to upper level trough noted on water vapor imagery over NW Mexico and the Baja peninsula. This upper level feature is continuing to develop a broad area of surface low pressure across northern Mexico...the Rio Grande River valley...and portions of the NW Gulf. A warm front extends from a 1008 mb low centered across southern Texas near 27N98W along the coast to southern Louisiana then to the nearshore waters S of Mobile Bay. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring within 60 nm either side of the front W of 90W. Generally moderate to fresh E-SE winds are anticipated overnight into Sunday as the front meanders across the NW and north-central waters. By Monday...a surface low is expected to develop in the vicinity of Corpus Christi with the associated cold front emerging off the Texas coast early Monday. The front will quickly move across the basin through Tuesday night into Wednesday and stall across the central Florida peninsula and SE Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge remains centered over much of the Caribbean basin with axis extending from over Panama near 07N81W to 26N80W. Water vapor imagery indicates relatively dry and stable air aloft in association with the ridging however a surface trough analyzed from 08N77W into a weak 1010 mb low near 11N78W to 18N80W is providing focus for scattered showers and widely scattered tstms from 12N-19N between 75W-85W. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail and are expected to persist through Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently isolated showers linger across the island and the adjacent Caribbean Sea waters. This generally lower level moisture and cloudiness remains beneath an upper level ridge anchored over Panama near 07N81W. Water vapor imagery indicates a relatively dry and stable environment persists aloft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Generally W-NW flow aloft prevails to 50W...however the special features cold front extends into the discussion area near 32N52W SW to the NW Bahamas near 25N77W. Isolated showers are noted within 90 nm either side of the front...and generally N of 26N E of the front to 50W. To the SE...a surface trough is analyzed from Puerto Rico N-NE to 25N62W. Within a weakness between ridging across the central Atlc and the SW North Atlc...isolated showers and tstms are occurring within 180 nm either side of the boundary. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern and central Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 24N41W. Within the southeastern periphery of the ridge...an upper level trough axis extends from 22N46W to a broad base in the deep tropics near 11N54W. Southwesterly flow aloft is generating a large area of cloudiness and precipitation highlighted as part of the ITCZ convection and extends from the ITCZ to 24N generally E of 47W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN