000 AXNT20 KNHC 031135 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning...The cold front currently in the west Atlantic will move to 32N50W along 25N65W to 24N80W with southwest gale force winds north of 30N east of the front to 40W starting at 04/0600 UTC. These winds will shift east with the front through 05/0600 UTC. Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N16W along 8N18W to 6N21W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues along 5N27W 6N36W 7N46W to east of surface trough near 9N50W. The surface trough embedded within the ITCZ extends from 13N50W through 10N53W to 7N54W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 7N-10N between 31W-40W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 3N-7N between 24W-30W and from 5N-7N between 37W-47W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection dot the area from south of 2N east of 3W, from 2N-6N between 10W-14W, and from 1N- 3N between 19W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper ridge dominates the Gulf this morning anchored in the Caribbean giving the Gulf southwest flow aloft. A deep layered trough over the western CONUS is inducing a broad area of low pressure over northeast Mexico supporting a warm front that extends from a 1008 mb low near 25N100W across south Texas and into the Gulf waters near Corpus Christi along 28N96W 28N93W to 29N92W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of the front to inland over Texas and Louisiana. Scattered showers are within 60 nm along the north Gulf coast west of Pensacola, Florida. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are south of the warm front that will persist through today as the warm front moves inland over the northwest Gulf coast. A surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high over Missouri is shifting east into the west Atlantic. The remnants of a stationary front in the Straits of Florida extending from the west Atlantic through 25N80W to 23N84W are generating isolated showers within 60 nm of the front including the Florida Keys. The next front will move into the west Gulf early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored over Colombia dominating the Caribbean this morning. At the surface: a surface trough extends from the south coast of Hispaniola near 18N72W to 14N75W and a second surface trough extends from over Colombia 10N75W to 11N82W. Clusters of scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms dot the central Caribbean from 10N-18N between 70W- 82W. The surface trough extending from south of Hispaniola will move west and weaken through tonight. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will shift south through early next week creating fresh trade winds across the central and western Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are across the south portion of the island this morning due to the surface trough that extends across the central Caribbean from the south coast near 18N72W. Lingering moisture and possible showers will continue across the island through the tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends over the west Atlantic. The surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high over Missouri is moving into the west Atlantic. An upper trough north of 30N is supporting a cold front that extends through 32N59W along 29N67W across the north Bahama Islands to 25N78W where it becomes stationary into the Straits of Florida to near 25N80W. This front is transecting an area of dry air, thus no shower activity is noted. A weak surface trough is north of Puerto Rico extending from 26N63W to 22N65W with isolated showers possible within 120 nm east of the trough. A surface ridge covers the central Atlantic anchored by a 1019 mb high near 25N44W. An upper trough in the east Atlantic is supporting a second cold front that extends through 32N13W over the western most Canary Island to 27N24W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm east of the front mainly over the Canary Islands. The west Atlantic cold front will reach from 32N50W along 25N65W to 24N80W Sunday night with southwest gale force winds east of the front. See Special Features above. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW