000 AXNT20 KNHC 030548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning...The cold front currently in the west Atlantic will move to 32N47W along 24N70W to 25N80W with southwest gale force winds north of 30N east of the front to 44W starting at 04/0600 UTC. These winds will shift east with the front through 05/0600 UTC. Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N17W to a weak 1012 mb low near 11N19W. The ITCZ begins near 6N19W and continues along 4N26W 7N38W 7N44W to east of surface trough near 9N49W. The surface trough embedded within the ITCZ extends from 14N46W through 10N50W to 5N52W with scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 150 nm of a line from 17N40W 12N45W to 7N48W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 200 nm of the ITCZ between 24W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper ridge dominates the Gulf tonight anchored in the Caribbean giving the Gulf southwest flow aloft. A deep layered trough over the desert southwest portion of the CONUS is inducing a broad area of low pressure over northern Mexico supporting a warm front that extends from a 1004 mb low near 25N101W across south Texas and into the Gulf waters between Brownsville and Corpus Christi along 27N95W to 26N92W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of the front to inland over Louisiana and are moving eastward north of 27N between 87W-92W. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are south of the warm front that will persist through the weekend as the front moves north over the northwest Gulf coast. A surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high over north Alabama is shifting east into the west Atlantic. The remnants of a stationary front in the Straits of Florida extending from the west Atlantic through 25N80W to 24N83W are generating scattered showers within 45 nm of the front including the Florida Keys. The next front will move into the west Gulf early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored over Colombia dominating the Caribbean waters. At the surface: a surface trough extends from the south coast of Hispaniola near 18N71W to 13N73W and a second surface trough extends from over Colombia 10N74W along 11N77W to 11N82W. Clusters of scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms dot the central Caribbean from 11N-18N between 70W- 83W. The surface trough extending from south of Hispaniola will move west through Sunday. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will shift south through early next week creating fresh trade winds across the central and western Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are across the island tonight due to the surface trough that extends across the central Caribbean from the south coast near 18N71W. Lingering moisture and possible showers will continue across the island through the remainder of the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends over the west Atlantic. The surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high over north Alabama is moving into the west Atlantic. An upper trough north of 30N is supporting a cold front that extends through 32N63W to 27N75W where it becomes stationary across the north Bahama Islands and into the Straits of Florida near 25N80W. This front is transecting an area of dry air, thus no shower activity is noted. A weak surface trough is north of Puerto Rico extending from 25N64W to 19N67W with isolated showers possible within 75 nm east of the trough. A surface ridge covers the central Atlantic anchored by a 1020 mb high near 26N50W. An upper trough in the east Atlantic is supporting a second cold front that extends through 32N17W along 27N23W to 26N32W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm southeast of the front. The west Atlantic cold front will reach from 32N47W along 24N70W to 25N80W Sunday night with southwest gale force winds east of the front. See Special Features above. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW