000 AXNT20 KNHC 021151 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 651 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being forecast for the areas that are called IRVING, MADEIRA, and METEOR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 03/1200 UTC, consists of: the threat of SW near gale or gale in AGADIR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W, to 06N24W, 08N42W and 08N45W. A surface trough is along 46W/47W from 04N to 13N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N southward from 60W eastward, in areas of disorganized precipitation. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough, that was moving through the central and eventually the eastern U.S.A., now is well to the north of the area of this bulletin. Large-scale upper level SW wind flow, that is moving through the area, is part of a larger-scale system of anticyclonic wind flow that spans the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean from 50W westward. A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean along 32N72W, to the Florida east coast near 26N80W, to 25N83W in the Gulf of Mexico. A dissipating stationary front continues from 25N83W, to 24N93W, 22N95W, and 18N94W in the SW corner of the area and the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. The Villahermosa Mexico airport was reporting LIFR conditions in the latest surface observation. A surface trough is within 90 nm to the SE of the frontal boundary, between 79W and 85W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico to the north of the cold front/ stationary front, from 25N northward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate in the Atlantic Ocean within 90 nm on either side of 29N75W 26N78W 23N83W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 29N northward between Bermuda and 75W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, from 24N northward from 86W westward. Coastal Waters Forecast: from TEXAS to FLORIDA: small craft advisories have been issued for parts of the coastal waters. small craft should exercise caution elsewhere. Please consult the individual forecasts from each NWS office with marine forecasting responsibilities. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KHQI, and KGBK. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: earlier light rain in Brownsville and McAllen has stopped. MVFR in Hebbronville. from the rest of TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: MVFR at the Ft. Myers General Airport. MVFR at the SW Florida International Airport in Ft.Myers, and in Naples. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level NE wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea that is from 70W eastward. A surface trough curves from 18N68W, to 16N69W, to 11N70W in Venezuela. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 18N southward between 65W and 76W. Rainshowers are possible, also, in broken low level clouds, from 18N southward between 76W and 83W, in broad surface cyclonic wind flow. A surface trough is along 23N62W in the Atlantic Ocean, 20N63W, 16N63W in the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible, in broken low level clouds, from 14N to 24N between 56W in the Atlantic Ocean and 66W in the Caribbean Sea. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea, from 70W westward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery. High level clouds are moving toward the north and northeast, away from the land areas of Central America and South America, from 70W westward. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N, between 74W in Colombia and beyond SE Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: is in interior and coastal sections of Colombia from 04N to 09N. 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 02/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.38 in Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Curacao. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the island. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward, and the Atlantic Ocean from 50W westward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the area. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and coastal plains, in areas of broken low level to middle level clouds. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no ceiling at 02/0300 UTC. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago: MVFR for visibility/mist. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that day one will consist of a ridge that will run from the coastal areas of Colombia near Panama toward Hispaniola. The ridge will shift westward and run from the same areas of Colombia and Panama toward SE Cuba. Expect NW wind flow during both days. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that E-to-SE wind flow will move across Hispaniola during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola ridge. Day two will consist of a separate east-to-west oriented ridge across the area, which will push NE wind flow across Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that E and SE wind flow will move across the area during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola ridge. Day two will consist of SE wind flow for the first half of the day, followed by NE wind flow with a SE Florida-to-Hispaniola ridge. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through 32N17W to 28N19W. Another trough is along 30N27W 25N36W 11N52W 06N54W. The troughs are supporting a dissipating cold front that passes through 32N19W to 26N26W and 23N38W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the east of the line 11N60W 25N30W beyond 30N23W, and from 30N northward from 30W eastward. A second cold front is approaching the area of responsibility of this bulletin, from the north, now passing through 32N31W to 31N37W, beyond 32N42W. A surface ridge extends from a 1016 mb high pressure center that is near 22N21W, about 360 nm to the NNE of the Cabo Verde Islands, to 18N31W, to a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 29N57W, toward the NW Bahamas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT