000 AXNT20 KNHC 020604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING WARNING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being forecast for the areas that are called IRVING and MADEIRA. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 03/0000 UTC, consists of: the threat of SW near gale or gale in AGADIR and CANARIAS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal border areas of Sierra Leone and Guinea, to 07N16W and 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W, to 06N25W, 07N31W and 09N40W and 08N44W. A surface trough is along 12N46W 08N47W 05N48W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 10N from 60W eastward, in areas of disorganized precipitation. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough, that was moving through the central and eventually the eastern U.S.A., now is well to the north of the area of this bulletin. Large-scale upper level SW wind flow, that is moving through the area, is part of a larger-scale system of anticyclonic wind flow that spans the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean from 50W westward. A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean along 32N73W, to Florida just to the north of Lake Okeechobee, to 26N85W in the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front continues from 26N85W, to 24N94W, and 18N94W in the SW corner of the area and the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. A surface trough is along 28N80W to 23N81W in the Straits of Florida. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate in the Atlantic Ocean from 27N to 29N between 77W and 79W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere within 150 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N72W 28N77W 23N84W, that extends from the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida, into the Straits of Florida and parts of the SE Gulf of Mexico. Coastal Waters Forecast: TEXAS: small craft advisory from the Houston/ Galveston NWS office. small craft should exercise caution elsewhere in the Texas coastal waters. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA : small craft should exercise caution in parts of the coastal waters. FLORIDA: small craft should exercise caution in the waters of the NWS offices in Tallahassee and Tampa. A small craft advisory may be required in parts of the coastal waters of the Key West NWS office. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KATP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... from TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: MVFR at the Ft. Myers General Airport. IFR at the SW Florida International Airport in Ft.Myers. light rain in Marathon Key. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level NE wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea that is from 70W eastward. A surface trough is along 18N66W 15N68W 12N68W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 10N to 20N between 60W and 72W. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea, from 70W westward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery. High level clouds are moving toward the north and northeast, away from the land areas of Central America and South America, from 70W westward. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia and beyond SE Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate in the waters that are from 12N southward from 73W westward. 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 02/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.38 in Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Curacao. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the island. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the area. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and coastal plains, in areas of broken low level to middle level clouds. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no ceiling at 02/0300 UTC. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling at 02/0000 UTC. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that day one will consist of a ridge that will run from the coastal areas of Colombia near Panama toward Hispaniola. The ridge will shift westward and run from the same areas of Colombia and Panama toward SE Cuba. Expect NW wind flow during both days. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that E-to-SE wind flow will move across Hispaniola during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola ridge. Day two will consist of a separate east-to-west oriented ridge across the area, which will push NE wind flow across Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that E and SE wind flow will move across the area during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola ridge. Day two will consist of SE wind flow for the first half of the day, followed by NE wind flow with a SE Florida-to-Hispaniola ridge. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through 32N22W to 28N20W. Another trough is along 26N31W 20N43W 13N53W 07N56W. The troughs are supporting a cold front that passes through 32N21W to 31N21W. A dissipating cold front continues from 31N21W to 27N26W and 24N33W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the east of the line 11N60W 26N30W beyond 32N19W, and from 30N northward between 20W and 40W. A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 22N21W, about 360 nm to the NNE of the Cabo Verde Islands, to 20N35W, to a 1023 mb high pressure center that is near 29N57W, toward the NW Bahamas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT