000 AXNT20 KNHC 012332 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 631 PM EST THU DEC 1 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 07N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N17W to 06N21W to 08N35W to 07N44W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 03W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-12N between 26W-45W...and from 12N-18N between 27W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the Gulf basin this evening with mid-level W-SW flow aloft prevailing as well. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed from across the central Florida peninsula into the eastern Gulf waters near Tampa Bay then W-SW to 26N87W then continues W-SW as a stationary front to 23N94W then southward to the Mexico coast near 18N94W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are noted on regional Doppler radar mosaic imagery S of the cold front across the Florida peninsula and across portions of the SE Gulf waters. Isolated showers are also possible within 180 nm N of the stationary front as it becomes more diffuse through early Friday. By Friday...high pressure will be anchored across the SE CONUS with moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevailing across much of the basin. Lingering weak surface troughing however will remain across the far portions of the SW Gulf along the coast of Mexico. Easterly winds will increase on Friday across the NW Gulf as an area of low pressure develops across extreme southern Texas and northern Mexico. The associated cold front will emerge off the Texas coast by early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the north-central Caribbean near 17N71W with water vapor imagery indicating relatively dry and stable air prevailing over much of the basin this evening. Mostly surface based features are generating areas of cloudiness and generally low-topped showers as a surface trough is analyzed across the NE Caribbean from 15N63W to 19N64W and another surface trough analyzed across Hispaniola and the adjacent coastal waters. Otherwise...the strongest convective activity is associated with the Monsoon Trough axis analyzed from northern Colombia to Costa Rica with scattered showers and tstms occurring S of 12N. Finally...moderate to fresh trades prevail and are expected to persist through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough extends across the western portion of the island providing focus for possible isolated showers this evening and through the overnight hours. Otherwise...a dry and stable anticyclonic circulation is centered S of the island near 17N71W providing mostly fair conditions which are expected to persist. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Southwesterly flow aloft prevails within the southern periphery of an upper level low centered over the New England states and Canadian Maritimes this evening supporting a cold front extending into the discussion area near 32N77W. The front extends SW to the Florida peninsula near Cape Canaveral and into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 24N W of 74W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 30N57W. This ridge also prevails across much of the central Atlc waters as well. Farther east...a middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 34N29W that supports a dissipating cold front 32N25W SW to 26N30W to 20N46W. The cold front remains rather benign however isolated showers are occurring N of 30N between 15W-30W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN