000 AXNT20 KNHC 011949 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1255 PM EST THU DEC 1 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING WARNING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being forecast for the area that is called IRVING. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 02/1200 UTC, consists of: threat of N or NW near gale or gale in the W part of IRVING; threat of cyclonic severe gale or storm in the NE part of IRVING and NW part of MADEIRA; and threat of near gale or gale in AGADIR and the N part of CANARIAS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 7N12W to 7N16W where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues along 7N30W to 7N43W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 6N-18N between 29W and 43W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper level low centered N of the Great Lakes extends a trough S-SW across the Gulf to a base over the Bay of Campeche. This upper level feature supports a cold front that at 1500 UTC extends across N Florida to 28N82W to 25N86W where it transitions to a stationary front that continues along 23N93W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Isolated showers are possible within 180 nm W of the boundary. A surface trough is ahead of the front from 24N88W to 19N91W, however no convection is associated with it. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure building behind is supporting NW to N fresh to strong winds south of 24N west of the front with sea heights to 10 feet. Moderate N-NE flow is over the remainder region W of the front while E-SE flow is elsewhere E of it. The cold front will exit the south Florida Peninsula Friday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica to northern Colombia and continues to supporting scattered heavy showers in the SW Caribbean S of 12N W of 77W. Otherwise, several surface troughs are in the basin. The westernmost trough is along the E Yucatan Peninsula and off Belize from 18N87W to W Honduras near 15N87W with isolated showers mainly inland. The second trough is over Hispaniola from 22N69W to 17N70W supporting showers across northern Island and adjacent waters. A third through is S of the Mona Passage from 18N67W to 12N69W. The easternmost trough is across the Leeward Islands from 19N61W to 15N62W with scattered showers and tstms extending to the northern Windward Islands. Otherwise, a broad upper level anticyclone centered S of Hispaniola and strong dry air subsidence from aloft support fair weather elsewhere. Moderate trades cover the eastern half of the basin while gentle flow is W of 77W. The surface trough across Hispaniola will move over the Windward passage by Friday morning with showers. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough is over Hispaniola from 22N69W to 17N70W supporting showers across northern Hispaniola and adjacent waters. A broad upper level anticyclone centered S of Hispaniola and strong dry air subsidence from aloft support fair weather elsewhere in the Island. Showers in the northern Island will continue tonight through Friday morning when the trough will move over the Windward passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Stable and fair weather conditions dominate the SW and central Atlantic being supported by a broad middle to upper level ridge as well as a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high near 30N57W. In the NE Atlantic a deep layer trough supports a cold front along 30N27W to 25N33W where it starts to dissipate. No convection is associated with the front. Farther east, diffluent flow aloft support scattered to isolated showers N of 20N E of 30W. West of the ITCZ, a surface trough extends from 13N44W to 5N45W with scattered showers and isolated tstms within 120 nm either side of its axis. Otherwise, a new cold front will start to move into SW N Atlc waters this evening through Sunday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos