000 AXNT20 KNHC 010605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST THU DEC 1 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is in the Gulf of Mexico along 30N86W 22N95W 18N94W. Expect gale-force NW-to-N winds and sea heights reaching 10 feet to the S of 22N to the W of the cold front. The gale-force wind conditions are expected to diminish to less than gale-force during the next few hours. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being forecast for the area that is called IRVING. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 02/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence of westerly near gale or gale in IRVING and MADEIRA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal border areas of Sierra Leone and Liberia to 06N13W. The ITCZ continues from 06N13W, to 05N18W, 06N31W, 09N39W, 07N47W and 04N51W at the coast of Brazil near French Guiana. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 08N44W. A surface trough extends from the low center to 14N43W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N southward, from 60W eastward, in areas of disorganized precipitation. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough is in the central U.S.A. Upper level SW wind flow, that is moving through the area, is part of a larger-scale system of anticyclonic wind flow that spans the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. A cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the area. Gale-force winds have been associated with this front. Blowing sand is being reported in Veracruz in Mexico. Small craft should exercise caution from the middle Texas Gulf coast southward, and from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: none. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR in Jasper. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: rain has ended for the moment in Tallahassee and Perry. MVFR in Perry. IFR in Cross City. LIFR in Punta Gorda. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SE corner of the area, with the same cyclonic circulation center that has been in the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea during the last few days, with a trough. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is along 20N60W 16N64W 12N67W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 18N southward between 60W and 70W. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea, from 70W westward, away from the cyclonic circulation center that is in the SE corner of the area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, elsewhere. High level clouds are moving northward, to the SW of the line that runs from 13N72W to SE Cuba. The monsoon trough is along 10N, between 74W in Colombia and beyond NW Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N southward from 75W westward. 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 01/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.34 in Curacao, and 0.07 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across the island. An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is just to the east of the NW Bahamas, with a ridge extending to Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the area. A surface trough is along 20N66W in the Atlantic Ocean, through the Mona Passage, to 16N68W in the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within a 15 nm to 30 nm radius of 19N68.5W in the eastern coastal sections of the Dominican Republic. Rainshowers are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and coastal plains, in areas of broken low level to middle level clouds. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling. Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: light rain. Punta Cana: earlier rain has ended. VFR/no ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago: light rain. Puerto Plata: light rain. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that anticyclonic wind flow will be moving across Hispaniola for the next 36 hours or so, followed by NW wind flow. An anticyclonic circulation center will move across the island, and then to the south of the island, in the central Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE-to-E wind flow will move across Hispaniola during day one. An anticyclonic circulation center will be about 380 nm to the north of Haiti. Expect E-to-SE wind flow during day two, until the end of the day. A ridge will bring NE wind flow at the end of the day. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that E and SE wind flow will move across the area during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean anticyclonic circulation center that will be about 730 nm to the NE of Hispaniola. Day two will consist of SE wind flow for the first half of the day. An inverted trough will move across Hispaniola during the second half of day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 22N northward between 45W and the U.S.A. east coast. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 32N61W, about 200 nm to the east of Bermuda. An Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through 32N34W to 23N38W, to 13N48W and 06N50W. This trough is supporting a dissipating cold front that passes through 32N33W to 27N35W, and 23N41W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 400 nm on either side of 10N38W 20N25W 28N26W beyond 32N28W. Isolated moderate from 10N to 21N between 50W and 60W. A surface ridge extends from a 1019 mb high pressure center that is near 25N17W, to the Cabo Verde Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt