000 AXNT20 KNHC 301800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 30N91W to 26N95W to 25N97W. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure building behind it will is generating NW to N strong to gale-force winds south of 25N west of the front with sea heights to 10 feet. Gale force winds are forecast to diminish Thursday early morning or before sunrise. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 01/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence or threat of a SE near gale to locally severe gale in IRVING and MADEIRA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 7N13W to 6N16W where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues along 7N22W to 5N32W to a 1010 mb low centered near 8N43W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 3N-13N between 20W and 43W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad middle to upper level low centered between Wisconsin and Minnesota extends a trough S across the western Gulf to a base over southern Mexico. This upper feature supports a cold front that at 1500 UTC extends from 30N91W to 26N95W to 25N97W and a squall line ahead of the front from 29N90W to 23N95W. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure building behind it will is generating NW to N strong to gale-force winds south of 25N west of the front with sea heights to 10 feet. For further details see special features. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are in the vicinity of the squall line from 25N to 28N between 91W and 95W. Except for the gale wind area, and S to SW fresh to strong winds E of the front N of 29N to 86W, moderate SE flow covers the remainder basin. GOES IFR show medium probabilities of fog between the squall line and the cold front while surface observations report fog and haze N of 27N W of 88W. Vessels navigating in this region should exercise caution as visibility may be low. The cold front will extend across northern Florida SW to the W Bay of Campeche Thursday before sunrise and will exit south Florida Friday near sunrise. Gale force winds are forecast to diminish early in the morning on Thursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level low centered over the NE Caribbean W of the Leeward Islands continue to support a 1014 mb low near 19N63W with associated through extending from the low center SW to 12N66W. These two features support passing showers over Puerto Rico and adjacent waters, and scattered heavy showers in the Windward Islands and adjacent SE Caribbean waters. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica to northern Colombia, thus supporting scattered to isolated showers S of 13N. Middle to upper level ridging and strong dry air subsidence from aloft support fair weather elsewhere. The low center will continue to move west N of the NE Caribbean and weaken to a surface trough over Puerto Rico Thursday morning. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle to upper level ridging along with strong dry air subsidence from aloft support fair weather across the Island. Fair weather is forecast today but a moist airmass will move across the region Thursday through Friday, thus increasing the chance of showers for the Dominican Republic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough in the central Atlantic continue to support a cold front that extends from 30N38W to 27N50W to 26N55W where it starts to dissipate. A dissipating stationary front is in the E Atlantic from 30N13W to 27N21W to 29N30W being supported by a middle to upper level low centered in NE Atlantic waters near 41N19W. There is no convection associated to any of these fronts. However, diffluent flow between these fronts along with a surface trough extending from 30N37W to 20N40W support scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 20N between 27W and 39W. A 1014 mb low is centered N of the Leeward Islands near 19N63W with associated surface trough along 25N59W SW to the low to the SE Caribbean. This area of low pressure is supporting scattered to isolated showers from 10N-17N between 50W and 62W. The next cold front will move off the Georgia coast Thursday evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos