000 AXNT20 KNHC 300601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 101 AM EST WED NOV 30 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... The 24-hour forecast consists of a cold front: 30N86W 22N95W 19N95W. Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights reaching 10 feet, to the S of 24N to the W of the cold front. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W, to 05N27W, to a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 08N42W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong within a 30 nm to 45 nm radius of 08N41.5W, near the 1011 mb low pressure center. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 11N southward between 17W and 44W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough is in the central U.S.A. Upper level SW and anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front is along the Texas coast, being supported by the deep layer trough in the central U.S.A. A cold front is just to the west of the stationary front. The cold front will overtake the stationary front, and eventually it will push itself into the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours or so. A small craft advisory is in effect for parts of the upper Texas coast. Small craft should exercise caution elsewhere along the upper Texas coast, from the Houston/Galveston NWS office. A small craft advisory is in effect in most parts of the middle Texas coast, from the Corpus Christi NWS office. A small craft advisory is in effect for the lower Texas coast, from the Brownsville NWS office. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: KBBF. IFR: KMZG, KBQX, KXIH, and KVAF. MVFR: KBQX, KHHV, KEMK, KGUL, KGBK, KEHC, KGHB, KGRY, KATP, KEIR, KSPR, KVOA, KMIS, KVKY, and KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR in Brownsville, Port Isabel, and Harlingen. IFR in Weslaco. MVFR in Alice and Robstown. IFR in Corpus Christi and at the NAS in Corpus Christi. MVFR in Palacios, and at Angleton/Lake Jackson. Earlier rain has ended in Beaumont/Port Arthur. MVFR in Galveston. LOUISIANA: thunder and rain in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area. MVFR in Lafayette, Port Fourchon, Baton Rouge, and in Slidell. MISSISSIPPI: rain and thunder in Natchez. MVFR in McComb and in parts of the Hattiesburg metropolitan area, in Gulfport and Pascagoula. ALABAMA: MVFR in Mobile and Gulf Shores, in Evergreen, Fort Rucker, and Dothan. FLORIDA: MVFR from Destin westward in the Florida Panhandle, and in parts of the Panama City metropolitan area, in Apalachicola. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow from the upper level trough of 24 hours ago covers the Caribbean Sea from 68W eastward. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is along 19N59W 15N64W 11N67W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 13N southward between 60W and 65W. scattered moderate to isolated strong from 17N to 20N between 54W and 62W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 50W and 60W. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea, from 70W westward, away from the eastern Caribbean Sea trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, elsewhere, to the west of the trough. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, between 74W in Colombia and beyond NW Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N southward from 70W westward. The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 30/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.05 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level N-to-NE wind flow is moving across the island. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the area. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and coastal plains, such as from 16N northward in the waters that are to the south of Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceiling. La Romana: VFR/no ceiling. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago: light rain. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that N and NE wind flow will be moving across Hispaniola at the start of day one. An anticyclonic circulation center will be on top of SE Cuba. The anticyclonic center will move to Hispaniola by the end of day one, bringing anticyclonic wind flow everywhere. The anticyclonic center will move into the Caribbean Sea, and be about 120 nm to the south of Haiti. Expect more anticyclonic wind flow during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow will move across Hispaniola during day one. An anticyclonic circulation center will be about 380 nm to the north of Haiti. Expect NE wind flow during day one. The anticyclonic circulation center will move during day two, to a position that is about 640 nm to the NE of Hispaniola. Expect NE-to-E wind flow during much of day two, becoming SE wind flow at the end of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE-to-E wind flow will move across the area during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean anticyclonic circulation center that will be about 560 nm to the NE of Hispaniola. Day two will consist of more NE-to-E wind flow across Hispaniola, for the first half of the day. The rest of day two will consist of an inverted trough moving across the area. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through 32N33W to 26N44W, to 22N46W and 18N46W. This trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N46W to 28N53W, and then dissipating stationary from 28N53W to 26N60W and 25N67W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between 30W and 50W. An upper level trough passes through the Madeira Archipelago, to the Canary Islands, to 12N19 just to the east of the Cabo Verde Islands. , to 10N28W. A cold front passes through 32N13W to 31N15W. A stationary front continues from 31N15w to 28N23W and 30N31W. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between Africa and 33W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT