000 AXNT20 KNHC 292332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 632 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The pressure gradient between the front and a high pressure building behind it will generate northwest to north gale- force winds south of 24N and west of the front with seas building to 10 ft. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 07N11W to 06N17W where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues along 07N26W to 07N38W. West of the ITCZ, a 1011 mb low is centered near 08N41W. Scattered showers are observed along and in the vicinity of the ITCZ from 02N-11N between 19W- 36W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1002 mb surface low is centered over southern Texas with a stationary front extending from northeast Mexico and along the Gulf states coastline. A surface ridge centered over the west Atlantic extends across the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts a fresh to near gale southerly flow north of 21N and west of 90W while moderate to fresh southeasterly winds prevail east of 90W. Expect for the stationary front to transition to a cold front tonight entering the northern Gulf during the next 24 hours. Gale-force winds are forecast to develop west of the front Wednesday afternoon. See the Special Features section above for further details. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid to upper-level low is centered east of Puerto Rico and is reflected at the surface as a trough that extends from 14N66W to 19N60W. Scattered showers are observed with this trough affecting the Lesser Antilles. In the southwest portion of the basin, the Monsoon Trough extends along 10N between 75W-81W with scattered moderate convection affecting portions of Panama and Costa Rica. Middle to upper level ridging and strong dry air subsidence aloft supports fair weather elsewhere. Expect for the surface trough to continue near Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... A mid to upper-level ridging along with strong dry air subsidence aloft supports fair weather across the island. These conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge prevails across the western Atlantic anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 36N65W. To the east, a weakening cold front extends from 25N68W to 30N53W then transitions to a cold front from that point to 37N46W. No significant convection is related to these features at this time. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting an area of scattered showers between 38W-50W. A dry stationary extends across the eastern Atlantic from 29N29W to 30N18W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the fronts to weaken. The next cold front will enter the western Atlantic by late Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA