000 AXNT20 KNHC 291803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 103 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is forecast to extend from 30N89W to 21N97W Wednesday afternoon. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure building behind it will generate NW to N gale-force winds south of 24N west of the front with sea heights to 10 feet. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 6N11W to 6N17W where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues along 6N26W to 6N37W. West of the ITCZ, a 1011 mb low is centered near 8N40W with scattered showers extending 210 nm SE from the low. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 2N-11N E of 32W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... Low pressure dominates across the basin ahead of a stationary front that extends across central Louisiana, along SE Texas to NE Mexico near 23N99W. Latest scatterometer data show fresh to near gale S-SE flow N of 21N W of 90W and moderate to fresh winds in the eastern half of the basin. CIRA LPW imagery show low level moisture inflow to the N-NW Gulf, which is supporting dense fog or hazy conditions N of 27N W of 88W. Vessels navigating in this region should exercise caution as visibility may be low. The stationary front will transition to a cold front tonight and will extend across northern Florida SW to Vera Cruz coastal waters Thursday near sunrise. Gale-force winds are forecast to develop west of the front Wednesday afternoon. See special features for further details. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level low centered between Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands support a 1008 mb low near 18N60W and associated surface trough that extends from the low SW to 12N65W. These features are supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms over the Lesser Antilles and the SE Caribbean. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica and Panama to northern Colombia, thus supporting isolated showers S of 12N. Middle to upper level ridging and strong dry air subsidence from aloft support fair weather elsewhere. The low center will continue to move west over the NE Caribbean Wednesday and weaken to a surface trough over Puerto Rico Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle to upper level ridging along with strong dry air subsidence from aloft support fair weather across the Island. Fair weather is forecast Wednesday but a moist airmass will move across the region Thursday, thus increasing the chance of showers for the Dominican Republic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough in the NW Atlantic continue to support a cold front that extends from 30N53W to 27N60W to 26N68W. A second cold front is in the E Atlantic from 30N16W to 28N21W to 28N30W being supported by a middle to upper level low centered in NE Atlantic waters. There is no convection associated to any of these fronts. A 1008 mb low is centered NE of the Leeward Islands near 18N60W with associated surface trough along 21N55W SW to the low to the SE Caribbean. This area of low pressure is supporting scattered showers and tstms from 11N-23N between 50W and 63W. Low to middle level moisture along with diffluent flow aloft support similar shower activity in the central basin between 36W and 50W. The next cold front will move off the Georgia coast Thursday evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS