000 AXNT20 KNHC 291154 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 654 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... NW-to-N Gale-force winds are forecast in about 36 hours, from 21.5N to 24N to the northwest of a cold front, 30N88W TO 24N95.5W TO 20N96.5W. Expect sea heights also to reach 9 feet. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near 10N15W to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W, to 06N29W. A surface trough is along 31W/32W from 03N to 09N. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 08N40W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 07N to 10N between 12W and 15W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N southward between 18W and 41W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough is moving through the central U.S.A. Upper level SW and anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front is along the Texas coast, being supported by the deep layer trough in the central U.S.A. A dense fog advisory was put in effect by the Houston/Galveston NWS office for the upper Texas coast. Small craft should exercise caution in the middle Texas coast, from the Corpus Christi NWS office. A small craft advisory is in effect for the lower Texas coast, from the Brownsville NWS office. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KXIH. MVFR: KBBF, KBQX, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KHQI, KEHC, KVQT, KGHB, KGRY, KATP, KEIR, KSPR, KVOA, KMIS, and KDLP. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 20N63W cyclonic circulation center, to 15N65W in the Caribbean Sea, to The Netherlands Antilles. Rainfall amounts of 2 inches in Curacao, and 3 inches in Guadeloupe, have been reported during the last 24 hours. One surface trough is along 18N55W, to a 1007 mb low pressure center that is near 18N59W, to just to the north of Guadeloupe, to 12N65W in the Caribbean Sea, to 10N68W along the coast of Venezuela. A second surface trough is along 22N55W 20N59W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 13N to 15N between 60W and 62W, from St. Vincent and the Grenadines to Martinique. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Atlantic Ocean from 16N to 20N between 54W and 58W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 52W and 70W from the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean Sea. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea, from 70W westward, away from the Atlantic Ocean- to-eastern Caribbean Sea trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, elsewhere, to the west of the Atlantic Ocean-to-eastern Caribbean Sea upper level trough. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in areas of broken-to-overcast multilayered clouds, from 14N to 16N between 79W and 82W to the east of the Honduras/Nicaragua border, and from 16N to Haiti between 72W and 75W. The monsoon trough is along 10N, between 74W in Colombia, beyond NW Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N southward from 70W westward. 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 29/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 3.47 in in Guadeloupe, and 2.02 in Curacao. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the island. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the area. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceiling. La Romana: light rainshowers. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago: VFR/no ceiling. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that N wind flow will be moving across Hispaniola at the start of day one. Hispaniola will be in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough that is in the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea, and a large- scale area of anticyclonic wind flow that is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The pure N wind flow gradually becomes NE wind flow as the anticyclonic circulation center moves toward the Windward Passage by the end of day one. Day two will consist of anticyclonic wind flow across Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows nearly the same scenario for day one that is forecast to happen at 250 mb. A difference is that the anticyclonic circulation center at 500 mb moves from the Yucatan Channel to the NW Bahamas by the end of day one. Day two will consist of NE wind flow, as the anticyclonic circulation center is forecast to move to a position in the Atlantic Ocean that is about 360 nm to the north of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the area, with an east-to-west oriented Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. The flow will remain from the NE, and finally from the E at the end of day one. The trough will weaken, and anticyclonic wind flow from the Atlantic Ocean will prevail. Day two will consist of NE- to-E wind flow, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola ridge. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through 32N53W to 27N51W, to 24N59W. This trough is supporting a dissipating cold front that passes through 32N52W to 27N63W, and then dissipating stationary from 27N63W to 26N71W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 240 nm on either side of 20N58W 25N50W beyond 32N44W. An upper level trough passes through 32N20W to 23N22W, across the Cabo Verde Islands, to 10N28W. A cold front passes through the Madeira Archipelago, to 31N20W, and 30N28W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 22N to 25N between 25W and 27W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N northward between Africa and 40W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT