000 AXNT20 KNHC 290605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southerly gale-force winds are present in the Gulf of Mexico, to the north of 26N and to the west of 90W. Expect sea heights to range from 8 feet to 12 feet. The gale-force winds are expected to diminish during the next few hours. Gale-force winds are forecast to return to the Gulf of Mexico in about 42 hours or so, with a cold front, along 30N89W 24N94W 20N97W. Expect N gale-force winds and sea heights reaching 8 feet, to the northwest of the cold front from 22N to 25N. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W, to 07N27W, 05N32W, and 07N36W. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 08N39W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to strong from 03N to 09N between 20W and 33W, and from 07N to 09N between 37W and 40W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N southward from 44W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough is moving through the central U.S.A. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is along the Texas coast, being supported by the deep layer trough in the central U.S.A. Expect the LIFR conditions in Texas to improve once the cold front moves more and more to the east, away from Texas. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: KGLS. IFR: KXIH and KGHB. MVFR: KBBF, KBQX, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KHQI, KEHC, KVQT, KGRY, KATP, KEIR, KSPR, KMIS, and KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR in Brownsville. MVFR in Port Isabel. LIFR in Robstown. IFR at the NAS in Corpus Christi. LIFR in Port Lavaca, Palacios, Bay City, Angleton/Lake Jackson, Galveston, Beaumont/Port Arthur and Jasper, in Pearland and at the southern Houston-area airports. LOUISIANA: IFR in Lake Charles. MVFR in Lafayette and New Iberia, in Patterson, in Port Fourchon, and in Galliano. Rain has ended for the moment in Baton Rouge. MVFR around Lake Pontchartrain. Light rain at the New Orleans Lakefront Airport. Mississippi: MVFR in Gulfport and McComb. Light rain in the Hattiesburg metropolitan area. ALABAMA: MVFR in parts of the Mobile metropolitan area, and in SE Alabama just to the north of the Florida state line. FLORIDA: MVFR in Pensacola and Milton, and in Tallahassee. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 21N65W cyclonic circulation center, to 15N65W in the Caribbean Sea, to NW coastal Venezuela. Rainfall amounts of 2 inches in Curacao, and 3 inches in Guadeloupe, have been reported during the last 24 hours. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 15N to 18N between 56W and 58W in the Atlantic Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the SE Caribbean Sea from 14N southward between 60W and 68W. One surface trough is along 20N58W 15N64W, to the ABC Islands. A second surface trough is along 25N61W 21N64W 17N65W. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea, away from the Atlantic Ocean-to SE Caribbean Sea trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, elsewhere, to the west of the Atlantic Ocean- to- eastern Caribbean Sea upper level trough. The monsoon trough is along 09N75W in Colombia, to 11N82W, beyond northern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 13N southward from 71W westward. 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 29/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 3.47 in in Guadeloupe, and 2.02 in Curacao. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the island. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the area. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceiling. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago: VFR/no ceiling. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N54W to 28N61W and 26N71W. An upper level trough passes through 32N21W to 16N27W to 10N33W. A dissipating stationary front extends from a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 30N37W to 28N36W and 26N37W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT