000 AXNT20 KNHC 282355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 655 PM EST MON NOV 28 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tight pressure gradient has developed in the northwest Gulf of Mexico ahead of a cold front supporting gale force winds north of 26N and west of 90W. These conditions will continue through tonight. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W to 07N21W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N35W. A 1011 mb surface low is centered near 08N38W with a surface trough extending from the low to 11N38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N between 21W-35W. Isolated showers are observed near the low center. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... The southern portion of a cold front is currently located over southern Texas enhancing winds across the northwest Gulf. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered over the west Atlantic. The pressure gradient generated by these features in the northwest Gulf is supporting gale force winds mainly north of 26N and west of 90W. Please refer to the section above for details. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds across the basin outside of the gale area. Expect for the cold front to enter the northwest Gulf tonight where it will stall. The front will be reinforced by late Tuesday reaching the Florida Big Bend area to the central Bay of Campeche Wednesday evening. North winds will increase to gale force off the coast of Mexico near Tampico Wednesday afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough over the central Atlantic dips south over the east Caribbean. This upper-level feature is reflected at the surface as a trough extending from 12N68W to 18N62W. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms to the east of this surface trough affecting the Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters east of 63W. The Monsoon Trough extends along 10N between 76W-83W with isolated showers. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds across the basin. Expect for the surface trough to continue to shift east and stall Tuesday over the far west Caribbean only to return west Wednesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. An upper- level anticyclone will approach the island from the west keeping the island dry and stable through the next 24 hours. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 36N73W. To the east, an upper trough over the west into the central Atlantic is supporting a frontal boundary analyzed as a stationary front from 27N72W to 29N64W then as a cold front from that point to 32N57W. No significant convection is related to these fronts at this time. A surface trough is to the south extending from 28N56W to 31N54W. Another trough is located from 19N65W to 25N60W. These troughs are supported by a diffluent flow aloft enhancing scattered light to moderate convection between 49W-65W. A shortwave upper trough is in the east Atlantic along 34W, supporting 1015 mb low near 30N36W with a stationary front extending from the low to 26N34W to 24N38W. A surface trough is to the southeast of this low extending from 26N30W to 23N27W. Isolated showers are observed along the front and trough. Expect during the next 24 hours for the front in the west-central Atlantic to dissipate. The low in the east Atlantic will also dissipate. The next cold front will move off the Georgia coast later in the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA