000 AXNT20 KNHC 281743 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 28 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W to 6N21W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues along 5N30W to 7N35W then resumes near 50N40W to 3N50W. A surface trough embedded within the ITCZ extends from 11N37W through a 1012 mb low near 8N37W to 6N39W with scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 5N-9N between 35W- 38W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 2N-9N between 20W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper ridge dominates the Gulf this afternoon anchored over the Gulf of Honduras in the west Caribbean. A deep layered trough over the central CONUS is supporting a cold front that is currently moving across Texas. A surface ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high along the North Carolina coast extends over the west Atlantic and into the east Gulf of Mexico and the northwest Caribbean. This is giving the Gulf waters southerly return flow with strong to near gale force winds across the northwest Gulf that will spread to the north-central Gulf later today. These winds will precede a cold front that is currently moving across Texas and will move into the northwest Gulf tonight where it will stall. The front will drift back inland Tuesday, then be reinforced and return into the Gulf as a strong front Tuesday night. This front will reach from the Florida Big Bend area to the central Bay of Campeche Wednesday evening. North winds will briefly increase to gale force off the coast of Mexico near Tampico Wednesday afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored in the Gulf of Honduras covering the Caribbean west of 75W. The upper trough over the west into the central Atlantic dips south over the central and east Caribbean. A surface trough is moving through the east Caribbean and extends from 19N67W across Puerto Rico along 15N67W to the coast of Venezuela near 12N70W. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are within 90/120 nm of a line from 17N60W across the Leeward Islands to 14N66W then narrows to within 45 nm of a line to 12N68W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms can be found across the remainder of the east Caribbean east of the surface trough. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N74W along 11N79W to across the Costa Rica and into the east Pacific region near 10N84W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are south 10N west of 80W. The surface trough will continue to shift east and stall Tuesday over the far west Caribbean only to return west Wednesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Skies are mostly clear across the island this afternoon. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible again today for the Dominican Republic. The surface trough in the east Caribbean will shift east away from the island today and Tuesday giving the island mostly clear skies. Wednesday will see moisture return to the island increasing the chance of showers and possible thunderstorms later in the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high along the North Carolina coast extends over the west Atlantic west of 65W. An upper trough over the west into the central Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends into the region near 32N59W to 28N66W where it becomes stationary to 26N73W. A surface trough is to the south extending from 26N59W to the northern Leeward islands near 18N64W. An upper ridge is along 50W providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south of 26N to over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico between 57W- 66W. A shortwave upper trough is in the east Atlantic along 34W, supporting 1014 mb low near 30N35W with a cold front extending from the low to 26N36W then becomes stationary to 23N43W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from 27N-30N between 32W and the front. A surface trough is to the southeast extending from 26N31W to 21N27W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm northeast of surface trough. The west Atlantic cold front stall this evening and become ill-defined Tuesday and Wednesday. The west Atlantic surface trough will continue to drift east. The next cold front will move off the Georgia coast later in the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW