000 AXNT20 KNHC 281110 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 610 AM EST MON NOV 28 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 07N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N19W to 04N29W to 08N37W to 02N45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from the Equator to 10N between 19W-37W. A surface trough is embedded within the ITCZ from a 1011 mb low near 08N37W to 13N39W. Convection associated with the low is included within the widely scattered convection area mentioned above. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Water vapor imagery indicates middle to upper level ridging over the Gulf basin this morning that continues to support a surface ridge axis extending from the across the coastal areas of the Carolinas SW through the Florida Big Bend region to the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula near 21N90W. Moderate to occasional fresh SE winds prevail E of 90W while fresh to strong S-SE winds are noted W of 90W. The return flow is occurring within the southern periphery of an intense area of low pressure analyzed across the northern US Plains. The associated cold front is expected to move eastward across Texas on Monday and emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Monday night into early Tuesday and likely stall across the NW Gulf waters. Another reinforcing and strong cold front is expected into the NW Gulf region Wednesday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level shortwave trough is progressing eastward over the north-central Caribbean with axis extending SW to 12N77W. Dry and stable NW flow prevails W of the trough axis with fair skies and conditions across the NW Caribbean...Central America... and the SW Caribbean N of the Monsoon Trough axis along 10N. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring S of 10N across portions of Panama and Costa Rica. E of the trough axis...middle to upper level moisture and cloudiness increase within W-SW flow aloft. A surface trough extends across Hispaniola from 20N70W to 12N70W providing focus for scattered showers and isolated strong tstms occurring N of 12N between 61W-69W. Otherwise...moderate SE winds prevail E of the trough axis and moderate to occasional fresh NE winds prevail W of the trough axis. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough extends along 70W and is providing focus for isolated showers across the island this morning...while scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring to the E of 69W and continuing to move eastward away from the region. A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery moving over the island currently and once this feature moves E of the region by Monday night...NW flow aloft and a much drier and more stable environment will prevail for much of the week ahead. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough is progressing eastward over the SW North Atlc into the central Atlc with axis extending into the discussion area near 32N63W SW to over Hispaniola and into the SW Caribbean Sea. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed from 32N60W SW to 26N74W. A pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed from the cold front near 28N66W S-SW to 20N70W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring mostly E of the cold front and surface trough from 18N-32N between 54W-69W. The remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high centered across the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Farther east...an upper level trough is noted in the vicinity of 30N37W that supports a 1015 mb low centered near 29N37W. A stationary front extends from the low to 23N42W with scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring within 330 nm NE of a surface trough extending from the low to 24N29W. The area of lower pressure extends southward focused along a surface trough from 26N36W to 18N40W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN