000 AXNT20 KNHC 280537 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1237 AM EST MON NOV 28 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 06N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N19W to 05N25W to 07N36W to 04N43W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from the Equator to 07N between 20W-36W. A surface trough is embedded within the ITCZ from 06N36W to 11N37W. Widely scattered convection is from 05N-12N between 33W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Water vapor imagery indicated middle to upper level ridging over the Gulf basin this evening that continues to support a surface ridge axis extending from the across the Carolinas SW through the Florida Big Bend region to the SW Gulf near 21N94W. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail E of 90W while fresh to strong S-SE winds are noted W of 90W. The return flow is occurring within the southern periphery of an intense area of low pressure analyzed across the northern US Plains. The associated cold front is expected to move eastward across Texas overnight into Monday and emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Monday night into early Tuesday and likely stall across the NW Gulf waters. Another reinforcing and strong cold front is expected Wednesday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level shortwave trough is progressing eastward over the north-central Caribbean with axis extending SW to 12N78W. Dry and stable NW flow prevails W of the trough axis with fair skies and conditions across the NW Caribbean...Central America... and the SW Caribbean N of the Monsoon Trough axis along 10N. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring S of 10N across portions of Panama and northern Colombia. E of the trough axis... middle to upper level moisture and cloudiness increase within W-SW flow aloft. A surface trough extends across Hispaniola from 20N70W to 15N70W providing focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring N of 14N between 62W-70W. Otherwise...moderate SE winds prevail E of the trough axis and moderate to occasional fresh NE winds prevail W of the trough axis. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough extends along 70W and is providing focus for widely scattered showers across the island this evening...while scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring across the NE and SE adjacent coastal waters within the SW North Atlc and Caribbean Sea respectively. A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery moving over the island tonight and once this feature moves E of the region...NW flow aloft and a much drier and more stable environment will prevail for much of the week ahead. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough is progressing eastward over the SW North Atlc into the central Atlc with axis extending into the discussion area near 32N66W SW to over western Hispaniola and into the SW Caribbean Sea. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed from 32N63W SW to 27N70W to Andros Island in the Bahamas near 25N78W. A pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed from the cold front near 27N68W southward to 20N70W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring mostly E of the cold front and surface trough from 18N-32N between 55W-70W. The remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high centered across the Carolinas. Farther east...an upper level trough is noted in the vicinity of 31N37W that supports a 1014 mb low centered near 32N38W. A stationary front extends from the low to 30N36W to 25N42W with scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring from 28N-35N between 27W-37W. The area of lower pressure extends southward to a 1012 mb low centered near 18N39W with a surface trough analyzed from the low center to 14N44W to 13N56W. Isolated showers are occurring from 14N-20N between 27W-38W to the E of the low. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN