000 AXNT20 KNHC 271733 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W along 4N21W to 4N26W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues along 7N38W to 8N48W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 3N to the coast of southwest Africa between 3W-11W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 3N-8N between 11W- 18W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper trough over the west Atlantic is supporting a weakening cold front that extends from the west Atlantic into the southeast Gulf across Florida near Miami to 25N86W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are in the Straits of Florida west of 82W including the Florida Keys. A surface trough is in the southwest Gulf extending from off Tampico near 23N97W along 21N95W to 19N93W generating scattered showers within 60 nm either side of the trough axis. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 1027 mb high over western Virginia. The front will wash out over the southeast Gulf by tonight. The surface trough over the southwest Gulf will move inland over Mexico tonight. Strong to near gale force winds will develop over the northwest Gulf tonight, then spreading eastward on Monday ahead of a cold front that will enter and stall over the far northwest Gulf Monday night. The front will drift back inland early Tuesday, then be reinforced and move back into the Gulf Tuesday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper trough over the west Atlantic dips south over the northwest Caribbean with near zonal westerly flow aloft across the remainder of the basin. the monsoon trough has returned to the southwest Caribbean extending from Colombia near 10N75W through a 1009 mb low near 11N77W continuing across the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border and into the east Pacific region. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from 10N-15N between 74W-76W and from 10N-14N west of 83W to inland over Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Isolated showers dot the remainder of the area south of 15N between 63W-74W. A surface trough is expected to set up tonight and shift from the Mona Passage to northwest Venezuela coast on Monday then continue east to Puerto Rico to the ABC Islands on Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are developing over the Dominican Republic this afternoon, with skies mostly clear over most of Haiti. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible today. The surface trough north of Haiti will sweep eastward and coupled with lingering moisture could produce showers and possible thunderstorms across the island Monday and the the Dominican Republic Tuesday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough is moving across the west Atlantic supporting a cold front that extends across Bermuda along 28N75W then across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico near Miami. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 150 nm east of the front east of 76W. To the south is a surface trough that extends from 25N70W to off the north coast of Haiti near 20N73W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 20N-26N between 66W-73W with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south of 22N to over Cuba between 73W-76W. A shortwave upper trough in the central Atlantic along 39W, supporting 1014 mb low near 32N39W with a cold front extending from the low along 28N38W to 24N44W where it dissipates to 23N52W. A weak 1015 mb low is centered near 24N39W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 45/60 nm of a line from 29N35W to 25N40W. In the Tropical Atlantic is a 1012 mb low near 17N40W with a surface trough extending to 11N50W. The west Atlantic cold front reach from 32N60W 25N65W to the central Bahamas Monday. The west Atlantic surface trough will continue to drift east. The next cold front will move off the Georgia coast later in the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW