000 AXNT20 KNHC 270541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1241 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 08N17W to 06N24W to 07N30W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N30W to 07N43W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N-07N between 09W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-10N between 18W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad middle to upper level troughing is over the offshore waters of the SW North Atlc and eastern US seaboard supporting a cold front extending across the southern Florida peninsula into the eastern Gulf waters near 27N82W. The front dissipates to 26N89W then becomes a dissipating stationary front to 24N96W to 19N95W. Most moisture and cloudiness is noted across the west-central and SW Gulf waters with possible isolated showers occurring S of 26N W of 91W. With the front weakening...generally gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevails across the basin this evening with the exception of northerly winds W of the dissipating front across the SW Gulf waters. Surface ridging to the north across much of the eastern CONUS will slide gradually E through Sunday and anchor across the Carolinas Sunday night into early Monday. On Sunday... southerly return flow across the western Gulf will gradually increase into fresh to strong levels as an area of low pressure ejects out of the Rockies into the central Plains and moves N-NE into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest by Monday. The associated cold front will emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by late Monday night into Tuesday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Subtle upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over portions of the central Caribbean as NW flow aloft persists over the NW Caribbean and generally westerly flow aloft elsewhere E of 72W. At the surface...moderate to fresh E-NE winds prevail with most isolated convection occurring S of 16N between 65W-88W. This overall pattern is forecast to persist through early Monday. By Monday night...strong high pressure will be anchored across the SW North Atlc to the north providing fresh to strong NE winds across the adjacent coastal waters of Hispaniola and through the Windward Passage region. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough extends from the northern coast of the island near 20N72W to 24N70W providing focus for isolated showers and tstms generally across the SW North Atlc adjacent coastal waters this evening. Otherwise...W-NW flow aloft prevails...however the surface troughing is expected to remain across the region through Sunday night providing the increased possibility of isolated showers and tstms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough progressing eastward offshore of the Carolinas and SE CONUS supporting a cold front analyzed from 32N71W SW to the Florida peninsula near 27N80W. Widely scattered showers and possible isolated tstms are occurring generally N of 25N between 66W and the front in an area of maximum low-level convergence in the vicinity of and to the east of the front. Fresh northerly winds will follow in wake of the front through Sunday as high pressure builds in behind the front. Across the central Atlc...a middle to upper level trough is noted in the vicinity of 33N40W with the associated stationary front analyzed from 32N40W to 28N42W to 25N50W to 20N60W to a surface trough analyzed along 71W. Most active convection is associated with the mid-level dynamics and troughing with scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring from 25N-37N between 30W-41W. Similar convection is occurring at the western extent of the front in association with the surface trough from 19N-24N between 64W-73W. To the SE of the frontal boundary...a surface trough is analyzed from 24N41W into a 1012 mb low near 23N40W into a 1011 mb low near 17N40W to 10N46W. Isolated showers and tstms are noted from 13N-20N between 35W-41W. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 33N29W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN