000 AXNT20 KNHC 270000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Senegal and Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 06N20W and 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W, to 07N34W and 06N46W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N southward from 33W eastward. Isolated moderate from 10N southward between 33W and 40W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is moving from the eastern U.S.A. into the western sections of the Atlantic Ocean. This trough is supporting a cold front that is passing through 32N74W to Florida near 28N82W. The cold front is dissipating from Florida near 28N82W, into the Gulf of Mexico near 27N89W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 27N89W to 27N95W and 26N97W. A surface trough is along 24N97W 20N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation in the Atlantic Ocean: rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through 32N67W 26N70W 21N76W, including in the Straits of Florida. Convective precipitation in the Gulf of Mexico: rainshowers are possible in broken to overcast multilayered clouds from 27N southward from 88W westward. A surface ridge passes through the coastal plains of Mexico, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are present now, and gale-force winds are forecast to continue to be present, for the next 24 hours or so, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: none. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: light rain in Harlingen. MVFR in Alice. from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. An upper level ridge extends from NW Venezuela into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 11N74W at the coast of Colombia, to 11N77W, to 13N81W. Broad surface low pressure covers the Caribbean Sea from 17N southward. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 16N southward between 63W and 80W. Similar precipitation is in Nicaragua. 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 26/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 2.04 in Curacao, 0.23 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.06 in Guadeloupe and in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 0.02 in Veracruz in Mexico. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the entire area. A stationary front is in the Atlantic Ocean, from 75 nm at its closest point to 150 nm at its farthest-away point, to the north of Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 19N to 24N between 63W and SE Cuba. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the coastal waters/coastal areas of Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR/no ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during the first half of day one. A trough will move to a position that is just to the west of the area during the second half of day one, and it will bring SW wind flow. The trough will move across Hispaniola during day two. Expect NW wind flow during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that W-to-SW wind flow will move across the area during day one. A trough will move into the Windward Passage, giving SW wind flow. The trough will move across Hispaniola during day two, bringing N wind flow to the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will start across the area at the beginning of day one, while an anticyclonic circulation center is to the north of Hispaniola in the Atlantic Ocean. The SE wind flow will become S wind flow as the anticyclonic circulation center moves eastward and away from the area completely. Southerly wind flow cover the eastern half of the island, while SW wind flow will cover the western half of the island. The trough will settle directly on top of Hispaniola at the end of day one. The wind flow that will move across the area during day two will be NW for much of the day, ending with N and NE wind flow. The trough will have moved to the east of the area completely by the end of day two. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N40W to 26N48W, 25N51W, to 20N60W, 21N69W, and between the SE Bahamas and northern Haiti near 21N73W. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible in the remainder of the area within 60 nm on either side of the line from 32N41W, to 26N47W, 22N54W, and 21N60W. An upper level trough passes through 32N43W to 26N43W to 20N50W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 23N41W. A surface trough is along 18N39W, to a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 16N41W, to 12N45W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 90 nm on either side of 24N43W 28N39W 32N37W. Isolated moderate within 30 nm to 60 nm on either side of 13N43W 16N40W 18N38W. Rainshowers are possible in the remainder of the area from 07N to 17N between 40W and 50W, and from 10N to 13N between 50W and 60W. An upper level trough is along 24N29W 16N32W, to 08N32W. A surface trough is along 23N28W 24N37W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 22N to 26N between 25W and 31W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 10N to 26N between Africa and 34W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 26N northward from 20W eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is associated with a trough that is outside the area. The trough is supporting surface troughs that also are outside the area. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT