000 AXNT20 KNHC 261120 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 620 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 07N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N20W to 05N25W to 05N31W to 04N37W to 05N43W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is from 03N-09N between 09W- 30W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 01N- 11N between 22W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad middle to upper level troughing is over the eastern CONUS with mid-level shortwave energy noted on water vapor imagery over the Carolinas and Georgia this morning progressing eastward. The shortwave supports an area of low pressure analyzed across the Carolinas and offshore waters to the NE with the associated cold front extending across coastal South Carolinas and North Florida to 30N84W W-SW to 28N89W becoming stationary to the far southern Texas coast near 26N97W. Isolated showers are occurring within 60 nm either side of the front E of 90W...and across much of the western Gulf waters W of 90W. The cold front is expected to become reinforced by a weak impulse of energy currently across eastern Texas with N-NE winds increasing slightly from gentle to moderate levels into moderate to occasional fresh by Saturday night. Surface ridging to the north across the mid-Mississippi River valley this morning will slide E-SE through Sunday and anchor across the Carolinas Sunday night into Monday. On Sunday... southerly return flow across the western Gulf will gradually increase into fresh to strong levels as an area of low pressure ejects out of the Rockies into the central Plains and moves N-NE into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest by Monday. The associated cold front will emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by late Monday night into Tuesday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Subtle upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over eastern Cuba and portions of the north-central Caribbean as upper level ridging persists over the NW Caribbean...Central America... along with much of the eastern Caribbean E of 72W. At the surface...fresh to occasional strong E-NE winds prevail between lower pressure across northern South America and a 1023 mb high centered across the SW North Atlc region near 31N65W. Most intense convection is occurring across the western Caribbean and portions of Central America with scattered showers and strong tstms generally S of 17N E of 70W to Central America across Nicaragua and Honduras. The pressure gradient is forecast to relax with the resulting trades expected to decrease late Saturday as the ridge to the north moves E-NE. ...HISPANIOLA... A shear line extends across the southern portion of the SW North Atlc from 20N64W across northern Hispaniola to Jamaica. The boundary continues to provide low-level moisture convergence across the region and a discontinuity in wind speed...generally fresh to the north...and gentle to moderate to the south with funneling NE winds through the Windward Passage. Isolated showers persist mainly within the adjacent coastal waters this morning however later today given peak daytime heating and instability... afternoon and evening scattered showers and tstms will be possible across the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 mb high is centered near 31N65W and influences much of the SW North Atlc this morning with moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevailing W of 58W. Water vapor imagery indicates a mid- level shortwave trough progressing eastward over the Carolinas supporting a cold front analyzed from a 1017 mb low centered near 35N78W SW North Florida that will emerge off the eastern US coast this morning. Fresh to occasional strong northerly winds will follow in wake of the front by Sunday as high pressure builds in behind the front. Across the central Atlc...an upper to middle level trough is noted in the vicinity of 33N48W with the associated stationary front analyzed from 32N43W to 30N47W into a 1014 mb low near 25N52W to 21N56W to 20N64W linking up with a shear line extending to northern Hispaniola near 20N72W. Isolated showers are noted N of 22N between 41W-51W with possible isolated showers elsewhere within 150 nm either side of the front and shear line W of 51W. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a middle to upper level trough along 33W promoting an upper level diffluent environment supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms from 15N-26N between 16W- 33W. In addition...an upper level low is centered near 40N10W over the adjacent coastal waters of the Iberian peninsula supporting a dissipating cold front extending into the discussion area near 32N10W. The front extends to the E of the Canary Islands near 28N13W then W-SW to 26N20W. Fresh to occasional strong NW winds follow in wake of the front across far NE portions of the discussion area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN