000 AXNT20 KNHC 260519 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1219 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 08N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N19W to 05N32W to 06N36W and from 10N50W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N-08N between 03W-14W...and from 04N-09N between 19W-31W. Widely scattered moderate is elsewhere from 02N-14N between 27W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad middle to upper level troughing is over the eastern CONUS with mid-level shortwave energy noted on water vapor imagery over Alabama and Georgia this evening progressing eastward. The shortwave supports an area of low pressure analyzed across the Carolinas with the associated cold front extending across SE Georgia and the Florida panhandle to 30N85W W-SW to 28N90W to the far southern Texas coast near 27N97W. Isolated showers are occurring within 60 nm either side of the front E of 90W...and across much of the western Gulf waters W of 90W. The cold front is expected to become reinforced by a secondary cold front currently across SE Texas through the overnight hours into Saturday with N-NE winds increasing slightly from gentle to moderate levels into moderate to occasional fresh by Saturday night. Surface ridging to the north across the mid-Mississippi River valley this evening will slide E-SE through Sunday and anchor across the Carolinas Sunday night into Monday. On Sunday...southerly return flow across the western Gulf will gradually increase into fresh to strong levels as an area of low pressure ejects into the central Plains and moves N-NE into the northern Plains by Monday. The associated cold front will emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by late Monday night into Tuesday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Subtle upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over Cuba and portions of the north-central Caribbean as upper level ridging persists over the NW Caribbean and Central America...along with much of the eastern Caribbean E of 72W. At the surface... fresh to occasional strong E-NE winds prevail between lower pressure across northern South America and a 1024 mb high centered across the SW North Atlc region near 30N73W. Most intense convection is occurring across the western Caribbean and portions of Central America with scattered showers and strong tstms from 09N-17N between 73W-81W...and from 12N-18N between 85W-89W. The pressure gradient is forecast to relax with the resulting trades expected to decrease late Saturday as the ridge to the north moves E-NE. ...HISPANIOLA... A stationary front extends across the central Atlc to 21N60W then W to the NW tip of Hispaniola near 20N73W. The front continues to provide low-level moisture convergence across the region with isolated showers persisting mainly within the adjacent coastal waters for the overnight period. Given peak daytime heating and instability...afternoon and evening scattered showers and tstms will be possible on Saturday across the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 mb high is centered near 30N73W and influences much of the SW North Atlc this evening with moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevailing W of 58W. Water vapor imagery indicates a mid- level shortwave trough progressing eastward over the SE CONUS supporting a cold front analyzed from the Carolinas SW to the Florida panhandle that will emerge off the eastern US coast Saturday. Fresh to occasional strong northerly winds will follow in wake of the front by Sunday as high pressure builds in behind the front. Across the central Atlc...an upper to middle level trough is noted in the vicinity of 33N50W with the associated stationary front analyzed from 32N42W to 30N47W into a 1016 mb low near 25N51W to 24N55W to 21N60W then W to 20N73W. Isolated showers are possible within 120 nm either side of the front with isolated tstms occurring E of the low center from 23N-27N between 47W-52W. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a middle to upper level trough along 35W promoting an upper level diffluent environment supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms from 14N-26N between 20W-34W. In addition...an upper level low is centered near 39N10W over the adjacent coastal waters of the Iberian peninsula supporting a cold front extending into the discussion area near 32N10W. The front extends to the S of the Canary Islands near 27N16W then W-NW to 31N26W. Fresh to occasional strong NW winds follow in wake of the front across far NE portions of the discussion area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN