000 AXNT20 KNHC 251744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... None. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 7N12W to 6N15W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues along 5N27W to east of a surface trough near 13N39W, then resumes west of the trough near 11N49W to 9N59W. The surface trough embedded within the ITCZ extends from 17N41W to 9N46W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 1N-6N between 9W-24W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 11N-17N between 29W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper trough inland over the eastern CONUS is supporting a cold front that extends into the north Gulf near the Florida/Alabama border and continues to 28N92W where it becomes stationary to the coast of Texas near 28N97W. Isolated showers are within 30 nm east of the cold front. A surface ridge anchored over Colorado extends over the remainder of the Gulf with a 1028 mb high over the Lower Mississippi Valley and a weaker 1022 mb high over northeast Mexico. The front will weaken while a reinforcing front moves into the northwest Gulf later today, merging with the current front, then reaching from northern Florida to south Texas early Saturday before weakening across the south Gulf Sunday and Sunday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge dominates the Caribbean east of 82W today anchored inland over Venezuela with near zonal westerly flow aloft west of 82W. Difflunce aloft over the central Caribbean is enhancing scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south of 18N west of 66W and south of 12N east of 66W across the Windward Islands to 59W. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong northeast winds over the northwest and north-central Caribbean through tonight before subsiding. ...HISPANIOLA... A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic to the Windward Passage near 20N74W. The front coupled with easterly surface flow are developing isolated showers across the island this afternoon. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible today and into the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper ridge extends from the northern Bahama Islands to beyond 32N75W. A surface ridge covers the west Atlantic north of 22N west of 55W and anchored by a 1026 mb high near 32N70W. An upper trough covers the central Atlantic north of 30N supporting a cold front entering the central Atlantic near 32N42W to 29N48W where it continues as a stationary front along 23N59W 22N65W to the Windward Passage near 20N74W. This front trisects an area of strong subsidence and dry air, limiting shower activity. A surface trough is to the east of the front extending from 27N50W to 23N51W with scattered showers within 150 nm east of the surface trough. An upper trough is further east supporting a surface trough that extends from 26N37W to 20N39W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from 21N-26N between 35W-38W. A large deep layered low is over Spain and Portugal supporting a cold front that enters the east Atlantic near 32N14W and extends along 30N20W returning northward to beyond 32N24W. A weak surface ridge is between the central Atlantic front and the above front anchored by a 1022 mb high about 200 nm southwest of the Azores. The west Atlantic high will shift eastward and weaken through Saturday. A cold front will move into the northwest Atlantic Saturday and will reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW