000 AXNT20 KNHC 240605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Otto is centered near 11.2N 82.2W at 24/0300 UTC or about 90 nm north-northeast of Limon, Costa Rica and about 105 nm east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 10N to 12N between 80W and 83W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of 19N between 77W and 85W. Please see latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N16W to 8N17W to 7N19W where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues along 8N36W to 9N50W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection is from 6N-10N between 33W and 40W. Similar convection is from 8N-17N between 21W and 27W and from 9N-11N between 57W and 62W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough extending from Indiana south to Mississippi and Alabama to the NW Gulf is supporting a cold front from Louisiana near 29N92W to the southern tip of Texas with possible isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the frontal boundary. Deep layer dry air prevails elsewhere, thus maintaining fair weather conditions across the remainder basin. Surface ridging ahead of the front provide with gentle variable winds in the NE Gulf while the latest scatterometer data show fresh to strong E-NE flow in the SE basin. Variable gentle flow is W of 90W. The cold front will stall along the northern Gulf coastline before sunrise through Friday morning when it will transition back to a cold front. The reinforcing front will reach from northern Florida to central Texas early Saturday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Hurricane Otto in the SW Caribbean continue to be the main concern in the basin. The center of Otto will move onshore within the hurricane warning area later today, and reach the Pacific coast of southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica early Friday. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, with weakening expected as the cyclone crosses southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. Total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches, can be expected across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua through today. These rains will likely result in life- threatening flash floods and mud slides. Please see Special Features above for further details. The remnants of a stationary front extending from the central Atlantic are being analyzed as a surface along 18N68W to 16N72W, which are supporting scattered moderate convection in the northern-central Caribbean N of 15N between 67W and 77W. Isolated showers are across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. High pressure building over the west Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong northeast winds over the northern-central and northwest basin through Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... The remnants of a stationary front extending from the central Atlantic are being analyzed as a surface along 18N68W to 16N72W, which are supporting scattered moderate convection in the Hispaniola southern adjacent waters N of 15N between 67W and 77W. Isolated showers are across Hispaniola. Showers associated with this feature will continue through the morning hours today. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough N of 30N between 50W and 65W supports a cold front from 30N51W to 25N58W where it transitions to a stationary front to 20N64W. A surface trough follows from the tail of the front to the eastern Dominican Republic to north- central Caribbean waters. Isolated showers are within 60 nm either side of the front. N of 25N west of the front surface ridging and fair weather conditions prevail. In the NE basin, an upper level low continue to reflect as a surface trough along 26N31W to 20N35W. The stationary front will weaken today as it is dragged into the Central Atlantic. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will shift eastward through Friday night. A cold front will move into the northwest waters Saturday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS