000 AXNT20 KNHC 231047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 547 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Otto is centered near 10.9N 80.4W at 23/0900 UTC or about 235 nm east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua and about 185 nm east-northeast of Limon, Costa Rica moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 9N-12N between 79W and 82W and from 13N-16N between 78W and 82W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 9N-16N between 77W and 83W. Please see latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 7N12W and then along 5N16W to 4N21W. The ITCZ begins near 4N21W and continues to 5N25W; it resumes west of a surface trough near 6N28W and continues to 8N40W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection is from 2N-10N east of 30W. Isolated showers are within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A dry and stable airmass remains over the Gulf of Mexico, which continue to support fair weather along with a surface ridge over the eastern CONUS that extends S-SW across the basin. The latest scatterometer data show gentle to moderate NE-E flow E of 90W and moderate to locally fresh SE flow W of 90W. The surface ridge currently anchored over West Virginia and Georgia will move NE-E through this afternoon, thus providing return flow ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf waters during the early evening. The front will stall from Louisiana to southern Texas Thursday near sunrise and then transition back to a cold front on Friday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The main concern in the basin continues to be Hurricane Otto located in the SW Caribbean. Please see Special Features section above for further details. A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic across the eastern Dominican Republic to 16N71W. Latest scatterometer data indicate that the former low at the tail of the stationary front weakened to a surface trough that extends from 18N73W to 14N74W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the trough is from 15N-18N between 71W and 76W. Scattered to isolated showers are across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and Jamaica associated with the front and the surface trough. The center of Otto will move onshore within the hurricane warning area on Thursday, and reach the Pacific coast of southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica Thursday night or early Friday. Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over San Andres and Providencia islands, and the higher terrain of central and western Panama and southern Costa Rica through today. Total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches, can be expected across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua through Thursday. These rains will likely result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. The stationary front is expected to dissipate by Thursday near sunrise. High pressure building over the west Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong northeast winds over the northern central basin through Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic across the eastern tip of Dominican Republic into the north-central Caribbean. This front and a surface trough just to the south of Haiti are supporting scattered to isolated showers across the Island. Showers associated with these features will continue today through early Thursday morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough N of 30N and W of 50W continue to support a stationary front that extends from 30N56W to 22N62W to the eastern Dominican Republic near 19N68W and into the north- central Caribbean. Isolated showers are within 90 nm either side of the weakening front. N of 25N west and east of the front surface ridging and fair weather conditions prevail. A middle to upper level low centered near 22N34W continue to reflect at the surface as a trough that extends from 22N35W to 26N36W, which support scattered showers and isolated tstms from 22N to 26N between 23W and 36W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are SE of the trough from 11N-17N between 28W and 32W. Scattered to isolated showers are over the Cape Verde Islands and adjacent waters. The stationary front will weaken thorough tonight and dissipate by Thu morning. High pressure shifting east from the Gulf of Mexico and eastern CONUS will strengthen northeast winds across the central and southern Bahamas today through Friday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS