000 AXNT20 KNHC 222349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Otto was upgraded to Hurricane at 22/2100 UTC. Hurricane Otto is centered near 10.6N 79.7W at 23/0000 UTC or about 255 nm east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua and about 200 nm east of Limon, Costa Rica moving west at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 9N-12N between 78W-81W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 150 nm of a line from 17N76W along 14N80W to 9N81W. Please see latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 6N11W along 5N14W to 5N18W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues along 7N22W to 10N28W, then resumes near 14N30W along 10N43W to 12N58W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 8N-12N between 25W-35W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 12W-18W and within 60 nm of a line from 4N22W to 7N30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A dry and stable airmass remains over most of the Gulf of Mexico this evening, the exception is some tropical moisture being advected over the far northwest Gulf. An upper trough is over the Central CONUS dipping south into north Mexico and is supporting the next front expected in the Gulf. Currently a surface ridge anchored over the easter CONUS extends south over the Gulf and is anchored by a pair of 1029 mb highs, one over Indiana and one over Ohio. The surface ridge will weaken and shift east through the remainder of the week. A cold front will move into the north Gulf Wednesday night, become stationary, then lift north again late on Thursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The primary concern this evening is Hurricane Otto. Please see Special Features above. A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic across western Puerto Rico along 17N69W to a weak 1008 mb low near 15N73W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 90/120 nm of this front and low. Hurricane Otto is expected to move west or west-northwest over the next couple of days approaching west Costa Rica and south Nicaragua Thursday. The front in the Caribbean is expected to dissipate by Wednesday. High pressure building over the west Atlantic will support fresh to strong northeast winds over a large area north of Hurricane Otto between Hispaniola and Costa Rica through the end of the week. ...HISPANIOLA... The stationary front that extends from the central Atlantic across western Puerto Rico into the Caribbean is generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over portions of the island this evening. Lingering moisture coupled with the close proximity of the front could continue to give the island showers and possible thunderstorms through Thursday, with the highest concentration over the Dominican Republic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper ridge over the Caribbean extends a ridge axis across the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula to over the the east CONUS covering the west Atlantic west of 72W. A broad upper trough covers the remainder of the west into the central Atlantic supporting a stationary front that extends through 32N54W along 26N61W into the Caribbean across western Puerto Rico. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 75 nm east of the front. A surface ridge anchored over the eastern CONUS extends over the far west Atlantic with dry, stable air north of 22N west of the stationary front. The upper ridge in the Caribbean extends a second ridge axis into the central Atlantic across the Lesser Antilles and is providing difflunce aloft to generate possible scattered showers within 120/150 nm of a line from 29N47W to the Virgin Islands near 18N63W. An upper low in the east Atlantic is centered near 23N35W supporting a surface trough that extends from 25N36W through a 1011 mb low near 19N35W continuing to 13N33W. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 150 nm either side of the surface trough. An upper ridge to the east of the upper low is providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered showers from 20N-27N between 24W-32W. A surface ridge dominates the east Atlantic north of 26N east of 50W anchored by a 1032 mb high about north of the Azores. The stationary front will weaken thorough Wednesday night and dissipate by Friday. High pressure shifting east from the Gulf of Mexico and eastern CONUS will strengthen northeast winds across the central and southern Bahamas tonight through Friday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW