000 AXNT20 KNHC 221049 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 549 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Otto is centered near 10.7N 79.0W at 22/0900 UTC or about 190 nm southeast of San Andres Island or about 290 nm east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Otto is currently nearly stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 75 nm from the center of Otto. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N-16N between 77W-83W. Please see latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 13N16W to 12N21W. The ITCZ begins near 11N37W and continues along 10N50W to near 10N60W. Scattered to isolated showers are within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface and middle level ridging as well as deep layer dry air continue to support stable conditions and fair weather over the entire Gulf of Mexico. The latest scatterometer data show gentle NE flow E of 90W and moderate to locally fresh E-SE flow W of 90W. The surface ridge currently anchored over southern Ohio will move NE through Wednesday near sunrise and will provide return flow ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf waters at night. The front will stall along the northern Gulf Coast Thursday before dissipating Friday morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The main concern in the basin is Tropical Storm Otto located in the SW Caribbean. Please see Special Features above. A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic across eastern Puerto Rico near 18N65W SW to a 1008 mb low located near 15N72W. Scattered to isolated showers are within 120 nm either side of the frontal boundary. The tail of a second partial stationary front continues to weaken across central Cuba to 20N79W. No convection is associated with this second frontal boundary. Otto is expected to strengthen to a hurricane during the next 36 hours. Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over San Andres and Providencia islands, and portions of central and western Panama and southeastern Costa Rica through Wednesday, with isolated totals upwards of 10 to 15 inches across the higher terrain of Central America. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. The leading stationary front will weaken today and dissipate overnight. ...HISPANIOLA... The stationary front that extends from the central Atlantic across eastern Puerto Rico into the Caribbean is generating scattered to isolated showers over the the eastern Dominican Republic and adjacent waters. Lingering moisture associated with the front is forecast to continue to give the island showers and possible thunderstorms through early Thursday, with the highest concentration over the Dominican Republic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper trough covers the west and the central Atlantic supporting a leading stationary front that extends through 30N54W along 22N62W across eastern Puerto Rico and then into the Caribbean Sea. Scattered to isolated showers are within 150 nm either side of the front. The upper trough also supports a cold front that extends from 30N61W to 24N71W where it becomes stationary to central Cuba and into the northwest Caribbean. This reinforcing cold front is embedded within dry, stable air aloft, limiting shower activity. A surface ridge anchored over the eastern CONUS extends over the far west Atlantic west of the reinforcing cold front. A middle level low supports a surface trough that extends from 23N31W through a 1011 mb low near 17N34W continuing to 14N35W. The upper low is supporting scattered moderate convection and isolated thunderstorms from 10N-15N between 24W-30W. A surface ridge dominates the central and east Atlantic north of 26N between 20W and 50W anchored by a 1031 mb high NW of the Azores. The west Atlantic reinforcing cold front will continue to move east merging with the leading stationary front today. The stationary portion of the reinforcing front will dissipate today. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS