000 AXNT20 KNHC 220605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Otto is centered near 10.7N 79.0W at 22/0600 UTC or about 190 nm southeast of San Andres Island or about 290 nm east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua moving S-SE at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous heavy showers are within 45 nm from the storm the center of Otto. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-15N between 78W-82W. Please see latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W to 12N20W. The ITCZ begins near 13N40W and continues along 11N50W to near 10N60W. Scattered to isolated showers are within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface and middle level ridging as well as deep layer dry air continue to support stable conditions and fair weather over the entire Gulf of Mexico. The latest scatterometer data show gentle NE flow E of 90W and moderate to locally fresh E-SE flow W of 90W. The surface ridge currently anchored over Kentucky will move NE through Wednesday near sunrise and will provide return flow ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf waters at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The main concern in the basin is Tropical Storm Otto located in the SW Caribbean. Please see Special Features above. A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic across eastern Puerto Rico near 18N65W SW to 15N70W to 13N77W with scattered showers within 120 nm either side of the frontal boundary. The tail of a second partial stationary front continues to weaken across central Cuba to 21N80W to 19N83W. No convection is associated with this second frontal boundary. Otto is expected to have little net motion overnight, but a slow westward motion is forecast to begin later today. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Otto is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over San Andres and Providencia islands, and portions of central and western Panama and southeastern Costa Rica through Wednesday, with isolated totals upwards of 10 to 15 inches across the higher terrain of Central America. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. The leading stationary front will weaken today and dissipate overnight. ...HISPANIOLA... The stationary front that extends from the central Atlantic across eastern Puerto Rico into the Caribbean is generating scattered to isolated showers over the the Dominican Republic and adjacent waters. Lingering moisture associated with the front could continue to give the island showers and possible thunderstorms through Thursday, with the highest concentration over the Dominican Republic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper trough covers the west and the central Atlantic supporting a leading stationary front that extends through 30N54W along 24N61W across eastern Puerto Rico and then into the Caribbean Sea. Scattered to isolated showers are within 150 nm either side of the front. The upper trough also supports a cold front that extends from 30N61W to 24N70W where it becomes stationary to central Cuba and into the northwest Caribbean. This reinforcing cold front is embedded within dry, stable air aloft, limiting shower activity. A surface ridge anchored over the eastern CONUS extends over the far west Atlantic west of the reinforcing cold front. An middle level low supports a surface trough that extends from 23N34W through a 1012 mb low near 17N34W continuing to 13N36W. The upper low is generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 11N-24N between 24W-34W. A surface ridge dominates the east Atlantic north of 26N east of 50W anchored by a 1032 mb high about north of the Azores. The west Atlantic reinforcing cold front will continue to move east merging with the leading stationary front today. The stationary portion of the reinforcing front will dissipate today. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS