000 AXNT20 KNHC 210604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1003 mb low pressure center is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea near 11N80W, off the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 15N southward from 72W westward. The precipitation pattern has become comparatively better organized during the last few hours. It appears that a tropical depression or a tropical storm may be forming. It will be necessary to start advisories later this morning about this cyclone if this development trend continues. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N17W to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to 07N24W and 08N30W. The ITCZ continues again from 10N45W to 09N53W and 07N58W along the coast of Guyana. A surface trough is along 18N34W 15N38W 10N42W. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 05N to 09N between 10W and 14W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 10N between 24W and 28W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 40W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through southern Louisiana, into the western sections of the Gulf of Mexico, and eventually into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The information about the cold front and gale-force winds is in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: VFR/no ceilings. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Lafayette and Patterson. from MISSISSIPPI to FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A deep layer trough passes through the area of Bermuda, across the Bahamas and Cuba, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A cold front follows the location of the upper level trough, from Bermuda to the Bahamas, to NW Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation in the Atlantic Ocean: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N62W to 27N70W to 23N80W at the coast of Cuba. Rainshowers are possible in the Gulf of Mexico from 24N southward from 90W westward. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level SW wind flow covers the area to the east of the line that runs from the Windward Passage toward the Gulf of Honduras. An upper level ridge runs from the coast of Venezuela near 69W, northwestward to SE Cuba. The 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 21/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.68 in Curacao, and 0.01 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the entire area. An upper level ridge extends from the coast of Venezuela near 69W, northwestward to SE Cuba. Please refer also to the section with the title FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA for more details. An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda, across the Bahamas and Cuba, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A stationary front passes through the Mona Passage, into the central sections of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong across the island, and in the coastal waters/coastal areas. Media sources have been reporting flooding and landslides in the Dominican Republic during the last few weeks, since 07 November. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, at 21/0200 UTC: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona at 21/0000 UTC: MVFR. ceiling at 1400 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: VFR/no ceiling. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours, with a ridge in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during day one. A ridge will be in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. A trough will approach Hispaniola from the NW. Anticyclonic wind flow will cover the Dominican Republic at the end of day one. A trough will be across Haiti at the end of day one. Cyclonic wind flow will span Hispaniola during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow, from an inverted trough, will span Hispaniola during most of day one. NE wind flow with a ridge will move across the area at the end of day one. Expect more NE wind flow, with the ridge, for day two. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 24N37W cyclonic circulation center, to 14N44W to 06N at the coast near the border of French Guiana and Suriname. A surface trough is along 35W/36W from 23N to 28N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 30N between Africa and 42W. Isolated moderate within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of the line 10N40W 09N49W 06N55W. Rainshowers are possible also from 10N northward between 20W and 50W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT