000 AXNT20 KNHC 190604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is in the Texas coastal waters, from the upper Texas Gulf coast to the middle Texas Gulf coast. Gale-force winds and gusts are present in this area. Surface high pressure is building across Texas from the north to the south. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 29N91W 19N95W westward. Please read the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/AXNT20 KNHC for more details. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 08N13W. The ITCZ continues from 08N13W to 07N22W 10N35W 07N45W, and 07N55W. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong from 13N southward from 53W eastward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 10N southward between 54W and South America. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 06N to 08N between 55W and 59W. A surface trough curves along 20N56W 16N60W, to Trinidad. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 08N to 13N between 57W and 62W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area, to the east of the advancing cold front. The cold front and gale- force wind information is in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: KHQI. IFR: none. MVFR: KVAF, KEMK, and KEHC. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: rain and thunder and MVFR conditions are in the lower valley/the deep south of Texas. LOUISIANA: light rain in Patterson. MVFR in Baton Rouge, and drizzle in Hammond. light rain has ended temporarily in the SW coastal sections. MISSISSIPPI: IFR in McComb. LIFR in Pascagoula. FLORIDA: LIFR in Crestview. MVFR in Mary Esther. LIFR in parts of the Panama City metropolitan area, in Apalachicola, in Tallahassee, in Brooksville. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A deep layer trough passes through the area of Bermuda, to the central Bahamas, to NW Cuba, toward the coastal areas of Honduras in Central America. The trough supports a cold front that passes through 32N56W to 30N57W to 25N60W to 22N63W. A stationary front continues from 22N63W to 20N69W, across Hispaniola along a NE-to- SW line, to 16N76W in the Caribbean Sea, to the northern coast of Nicaragua near 14N83W. Convective precipitation in the Atlantic Ocean: isolated moderate within 90 nm on either side of 32N55W 26N57W 23N60W, into the Mona Passage. Convective precipitation in the Caribbean Sea: scattered strong from 15N to 18N between 74W and 76W. scattered to numerous strong from 13N southward between 80W and the coast of Central America. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level SW wind flow covers the area to the east of the line that runs from central Cuba to the central coast of Honduras. An upper level ridge runs from the SE corner of the area beyond Hispaniola. An upper level trough covers the rest of the area, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 19/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.70 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the entire area. Please refer to the section with the title FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA for more details. An upper level passes through the Atlantic Ocean, across NW Cuba, toward Honduras. A stationary front cuts across Hispaniola along a NE-to-SW oriented line. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible across the island, and in the coastal waters/coastal areas. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR/no ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona at 19/0000 UTC: VFR/no ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceiling. La Romana: rain has ended for the moment. VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago: light rain. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. An upper level ridge will be in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A ridge will be in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. A trough will be approaching from the west. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that a changing pattern will start with an inverted trough, followed by a trough/ridge couplet from east-to-west for 12 hours or so, followed by a ridge, to end day one. Day two will start with anticyclonic wind flow for the first 12 hours or so, followed by NE wind flow with a ridge. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A deep layer trough passes through the area of Bermuda, to the central Bahamas, to NW Cuba, toward the coastal areas of Honduras in Central America. The trough supports a cold front that passes through 32N56W to 30N57W to 25N60W to 22N63W. A stationary front continues from 22N63W to 20N69W, across Hispaniola along a NE-to- SW line, to 16N76W in the Caribbean Sea, to the northern coast of Nicaragua near 14N83W. Convective precipitation in the Atlantic Ocean: isolated moderate within 90 nm on either side of 32N55W 26N57W 23N60W, into the Mona Passage. Convective precipitation in the Caribbean Sea: scattered strong from 15N to 18N between 74W and 76W. scattered to numerous strong from 13N southward between 80W and the coast of Central America. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N15W, to a cyclonic circulation center that is near 24N35W, to 17N43W and 10N49W. A surface trough is along 33W/34W from 22N to 27N. A second surface trough is along 15N30W 13N33W 10N36W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 22N to 29N between 27W and 40W. Rainshowers are possible also from 10N northward between 20W and 60W. A western Atlantic Ocean surface ridge extends from a NE Florida 1022 mb high pressure center, through 28N76W, to 24N68W. An eastern Atlantic Ocean surface ridge passes through 32N46W to 27N50W, to 20N56W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT