000 AXNT20 KNHC 181149 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico tonight, then reach from the Straits of Florida to the southwest Gulf by Sunday morning. Strong high pressure will build in behind the front, allowing winds to build to gale force south 25N west of 95W within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico Saturday and south of 22N near Veracruz Saturday night through Sunday morning. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/AXNT20 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W to 8N18W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues along 8N23W 11N28W 8N30W to near 8N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection covers the area from 7N- 13N between 21W-30W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 3N-6N between 4W-13W and from 6N-10N between 18W-21W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 31W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A dry and stable airmass remains in place over the Gulf of Mexico again this morning with a surface ridge extending over the Gulf from the southeast CONUS anchored by a series of highs inland along the eastern seaboard. This is giving the Gulf clear skies and tranquil conditions again this morning. The surface ridge is giving the Gulf east to southeast return flow that will persist through today. A strong cold front will move into the northwest Gulf tonight and reach the Straits of Florida to the southwest Gulf by Sunday morning bringing gale force winds to the west-central and southwest Gulf Saturday and early Sunday. See Special Features above. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A remnant stationary front extends from the west Atlantic along the north coast of Hispaniola to the Windward Passage near 19.5N74W continuing just south of the Cayman Islands along 19N80W, then to the coast of Honduras near 16N85W. South of the front is a persistent broad 1006 mb low near 12N82W. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south the front to the coast of Panama and Costa Rica between 76W-83W, including portions of Jamaica. This activity is being enhanced by an upper ridge that has persisted over the Caribbean this week. A second surface trough is moving across the central Caribbean extending along 69W from 13N-18N. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are within 75 nm of a line from 16N73W to over the Greater Antilles near 18N67W including Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The stationary front will persist from the Windward Passage to Honduras through Saturday night. A new cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean Sunday. The broad area of low pressure will persist through the weekend. The second surface trough will continue west through tonight. ...HISPANIOLA... A stationary front extends from the west-central Atlantic near 20N70W, then along the north coast of the island to the Windward Passage near 19.5N74W continuing over the west Caribbean. A surface trough is just south of the Mona Passage and coupled with the frontal boundary are generating scattered showers possible isolated thunderstorms over the Dominican Republic this morning. This front will lie across the north portion of the island through Saturday, and coupled with the surface trough moving through the central Caribbean will give the island scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms spreading west across the island today and will persist through Saturday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough reaching from the Canadian Maritimes off New England over the west Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends through 32N61W to 24N65W where it pulls up stationary to along the north coast of Hispaniola near 20N70W to the Windward Passage near 19.5N74W and continues into the west Caribbean. Isolated showers are within 60 nm east of the cold front. A pre- frontal surface trough extends from 23N64W to 19N67W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 21N to over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic west of 64W to the stationary front. The upper low in the east Atlantic is elongated from 32N16W 30N24W to 23N40W supporting a surface trough that extends from 29N29W to 23N31W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from 27N-29N west of 26W to the surface trough. A large surface ridge dominates the remainder of the east and central Atlantic anchored by a 1030 mb high about 400 nm west-northwest of the Azores. The west Atlantic cold front will continue to move east into the central Atlantic today while the stationary front will persist through Saturday. A strong cold front will enter the west Atlantic Saturday night and extend from 32N68W to the northern Bahamas Sunday and from Bermuda to west Cuba Sunday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW