000 AXNT20 KNHC 171739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1239 PM EST THU NOV 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico gale warning: a strong cold front will move into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night, shift southeast through Saturday, and reach from south Florida to the southwest Gulf by early Sunday. Strong high pressure will build behind the front, allowing winds to gale force over portions of the west central and southwest Gulf along the coast of Mexico, from Tampico to south of Veracruz starting Saturday through mid Sunday. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across west Africa into the eastern Atlantic at 07N12W then transitions to the ITCZ at 08N16W. The ITCZ continues westward to 10N25W to 09N55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 16W and 25W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 12N to 15N between 25W and 30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... 1021 mb high pressure is centered over the Georgia/Alabama border this morning, maintaining light anticyclonic flow across much of the eastern Gulf. Fair skies persist across most of the Gulf, except for the west central and southwest Gulf where broken to overcast mid and high level clouds persist due to the presence of the subtropical jet overhead. Moderate southerly return flow is ongoing across the northwest Gulf, between the high pressure and deep low pressure emerging out of the Colorado Rockies into the central Plains. An associated cold front will move across the southern Plains through Friday, and enter the northwest Gulf Friday night. A cool airmass building behind the front will bring strong northerly winds over much of the Gulf through late Sunday, reaching gale force over the west central and southwest Gulf. Winds and seas diminish early next week as the high pressure shifts eastward through the Carolinas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A frontal boundary reaching from eastern Cuba to north central Honduras will sag southward through Friday, eventually stalling completely from northwest Haiti to eastern Honduras. A few showers and thunderstorms active along the length of this boundary will persist through the weekend. Farther south, 1008 mb low pressure remains centered near 13N80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues to pulse within 180 nm in the southeast semicircle of the low pressure. Although the overall pattern is not as organized as it has been, a tropical depression could form over the next several days as the low pressure continues to meander over the southwest Caribbean. Farther east, a weak surface trough continues to move slowly westward from the eastern Caribbean into the central Caribbean. Looking ahead, a strong reinforcing front will push into the northwest Caribbean Sunday, bringing a surge of strong northerly winds across the northwest Caribbean, the Windward Passage, and along the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and western Panama into Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the merged frontal boundary as well. ...HISPANIOLA... The upper ridge over the Caribbean coupled with the approaching cold front is creating a diffluent environment across the island. Moisture from the system over the southwest Caribbean is advecting across the island giving parts of Haiti scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. The cold front is expected to stall over northwest Haiti and the Windward Passage this evening. This will continue to produce showers and possible thunderstorms across the island through the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough reaching from New England to the central Bahamas is supporting a cold front that extends from a 1004 mb low near Bermuda to the southern Bahamas near 21N73W, then more or less stationary into eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active within 180 nm east of the front. An upper low is in the east Atlantic near 28N28W supporting a surface trough that extends 29N27W to 22N27W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed from 26N to 30N between 22W and 28W. A large surface ridge dominates the remainder of the east and central Atlantic anchored by a 1032 mb high pressure north of area near 41N36W. The west Atlantic front will move east reaching from 32N62W to 22N66W then stationary to the Windward Passage this evening. The cold front will continue into the central Atlantic Friday. The next even stronger cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Saturday night followed by strong northerly winds. Winds will diminish through late Sunday as the front shifts eastward, eventually reaching from 32N62W to central Cuba by early Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ CHRISTENSEN