000 AXNT20 KNHC 170609 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic to the coast of Sierra Leone near 8N13W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues into the Atlantic along 7N17W 9N34W 7N52W to south America near 8N59w. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of a line from 6N22W to 4N31W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 5N-11N between 16W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A dry and stable airmass remains in place across the entire basin tonight, in the wake of a recent frontal passage that swept across the region early this week. Mid to high clouds related to the subtropical jet push into the far southwest Gulf of Mexico, within 75 nm along the coast from Tampico to Veracruz. A surface ridge has built south into the Gulf anchored by a pair of 1017 mb highs; one over Alabama and the second along the southeast coast of Louisiana near 29N91W. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf east-southeast return flow and fair weather tonight. This return flow will persist through Friday. A strong cold front will move into the northwest Gulf late Friday night and reach south Florida to the southwest Gulf by Sunday morning. This could produce gale force winds over the southwest Gulf Saturday into Sunday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A remnant cold front extends from the west Atlantic across Cuba near 21N77W across the Cayman Islands to 17N84W then along the coast of Honduras and Guatemala. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the front west of 83W. Southeast of the front is a persistent surface trough that extends from Jamaica near 18N78W through a weak 1008 mb low near 13N80W to Panama near 9N81W. clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 225 nm either side of the surface trough. This activity is being enhanced by an upper ridge that has persisted over the Caribbean this week. A second surface trough is moving across the east Caribbean extending from Saint Croix in the Virgin Islands to off the coast of Venezuela near 11N66W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 13N-18N between 62W-70W including portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The front over the northwest Caribbean coupled with upper ridge over the Caribbean is producing a diffluent environment, then adding the moisture associated with the western surface trough are generating scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms north of 17N between 72W-77W including east Cuba and most of Haiti. The cold front is expected to stall from the Windward Passage to the Nicaragua/Honduras border Thursday evening. The low will meander over the southwest Caribbean into the weekend when a tropical depression could from. The second surface trough will continue west through the end of the week. ...HISPANIOLA... The upper ridge over the Caribbean coupled with the approaching cold front is creating a diffluent environment across the island. Moisture from the system over the southwest Caribbean is advecting across the island giving Haiti scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. The cold front is expected to stall over the Windward Passage Thursday evening. This will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms across the island into the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough reaching from off New England to the central Bahamas is supporting a cold front that extends through 32N67W to a weak 1007 mb low near 28N70W continuing across the Bahamas to across Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are well ahead of the front within 90 nm of la line from the Windward Passage near 20N73W along 25N68W to 31N65W. Meanwhile a stronger cold front is expected to move into the waters off northeast Florida by Sunday. Farther east, a broad ridge dominates much of the remainder of the east Atlantic anchored by a 1033 mb high about 350 nm northwest of the Azores. A trough is noted northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, north of 25N along 27W. This is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 250 nm east of the trough. The west Atlantic low pressure is expected to move rapidly to the northeast toward Bermuda through early Thursday. The front will continue to move eastward, reaching from 32N65W to the Windward Passage by Thursday afternoon where it will stall. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW