000 AXNT20 KNHC 161144 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST WED NOV 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 7N12W to 8N15W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 10N27W 7N49W to near 8N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from the equator to 3N east of 2W across the Prime Meridian. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 4N-9N between 11W-18W, from 8N-11N between 21W-30W, and from 13N to the coast of South America between 58W-61W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper trough extends from over New England into the northeast Gulf of Mexico over the northeast Florida then narrows as it extends west to south Texas supporting a surface trough that extends from Alabama near 31N88W into the Gulf across the Mississippi Delta of Louisiana to 25N95W. Dry, stable air aloft covers the north Gulf limiting any shower activity with this trough. The remnant cold front has exited the Gulf. However, scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are still in the Straits of Florida south of a line from southeast Florida near 26N80W to Cuba near 23N83W. Scattered showers with possible isolated thunderstorms are inland and within 90 nm along the coast of Mexico south of 22N east of 95W. The surface trough over will stall and dissipate over the central Gulf tonight. A strong cold front will move into the northwest Gulf late Friday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A remnant cold front extends from the west Atlantic across Cuba near 23N81W along 20N86W to over the Yucatan peninsula to 17N92W. Scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are northwest of a line from Cuba near 22N81W to the Yucatan near 18N88W. An elongated east/west upper ridge remains anchored near 16N70W and extends into the west Atlantic. At the surface is a surface trough that extends from 14N73W through a 1007 mb low near 12N79W then west to over Central America near the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 18N between 76W-83W and from 18N across Cuba and through the Windward Passage between 74W-78W. The upper ridge is providing difflunce aloft to enhance the showers and thunderstorms associated with this system. A surface trough is over east Caribbean extending from 17N62W to the coast of Venezuela near 11N63W with isolated showers and thunderstorms south of 17N east of 65W to the Lesser Antilles. The cold front will stall from the Windward Passage to Honduras/Nicaragua border Thursday evening then persist through the end of the week. The east Caribbean surface trough will continue to track west into the south-central Caribbean through Friday. The broad area of low pressure will meander over the southwest Caribbean through the end of the week. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the northwest coast of Haiti this monring. Afternoon showers will develop over the island again today with showers and thunderstorms increasing with the approach of the cold front as it stalls in the Windward Passage on Thursday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean extends over the west Atlantic between 60W-76W. At the surface is a remnant, slow moving cold front that extends through 32N69W along 27N75W then across the Bahama Islands to over Cuba near 23N81W into the northwest Caribbean. Scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 75 nm east of the front and within 120 nm west of the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from over the southern Bahama Islands to over Cuba and the through the Windward Passage between 71W-76W. A narrow upper trough extends into the central Atlantic through 32N55W to 22N49W with a surface trough extending from 32N55W along 26N54W to 20N56W with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms east of the surface trough to 46W and from 16N-19N between 48W-54W. An upper low over the east Atlantic centered near 28N26W is supporting a surface trough that extends from 30N24W to 24N24W and is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 25N-30N between 20W-28W. A broad surface ridge covers the remainder of the east Atlantic anchored by a 1034 mb high about 300 nm northwest of the Azores. The west Atlantic cold front will move slowly southeast reaching from 32N67W to the Turks and Caicos becoming stationary into the Caribbean through the Windward Passage on Thursday. The north portion of the front will continue into the central Atlantic through the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW