000 AXNT20 KNHC 152335 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 635 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 8N13W where the ITCZ axis begins and continues along 7N20W to 9N34W to 7N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 7N-9N between 13W-16W, and within 120 nm S of the ITCZ axis between 18W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-11N between 17W-23W, and from 10N-11N between 30W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. The front is generating numerous patches of rain with embedded showers across the Straits of Florida, the Florida Keys and SE Florida. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted per scatterometer data in the wake of the front, with the exception of moderate to fresh winds over the Bay of Campeche, where abundant cloudiness with patches of light rain is observed. The front will move SE exiting the Gulf tonight. A new cold front has entered the NW Gulf. At 2100 UTC, the new front stretches from SW Louisiana to near Corpus Christi Texas. This front is forecast to stall across the north waters tonight and dissipate on Wednesday. Then, high pressure behind the front, with center over the SE CONUS will dominate the Gulf region the remainder of the week. A third cold front is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico by Friday night followed by strong to near gale force northerly winds and building seas. In the upper-levels, a long-wave trough extends across the eastern United States and over the northern Gulf from the Florida Panhandle to near Brownsville Texas supporting the aforementioned cold front. Strong SW flow S of the trough axis dominates the remainder of the Gulf and the State of Florida. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A large area cloudiness and thunderstorms is associated with a broad low pressure system located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. At 1800 UTC, a 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed on the surface map near 12N78W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development of this disturbance during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week or over the weekend while the low drifts generally northward. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this low pressure a high change of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. Computer model suggests increasing winds in the lee of Cuba on Thursday, then between Cuba and the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida on Friday. This will be associated with a tight pressure gradient between the high pressure over the SE United States and the developing tropical low across the SW Caribbean. A cold front is over western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. This front is forecast to reach from west-central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by early Wednesday afternoon, and from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras by Wednesday night where it is forecast to stall. Expect some shower activity with the frontal passage. A trough is over the Windward Islands producing some shower activity. Moisture associated with this trough will spread across the eastern Caribbean tonight and Wednesday. Aloft, upper diffluence, associated with an anticyclone centered near 16N74W, is helping to induce convection near the broad area of low pressure located in the SW Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Available moisture will combine with the local effects to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N72W and continues SW across the Straits of Florida and western Cuba. A 180 nm wide band of cloudiness with embedded showers is associated with this front. It is forecast to move slowly SE reaching from 31N69W to the NW Bahamas and west-central Cuba by early Wednesday morning, and from 31N68W to the Windward Passage by Wednesday night. The northern portion of the front will continue to move SE while the southern portion will stall near the Windward Passage on Thursday. An occluded low pressure is near 31N55W with a cold front entering the forecast region near 31N50w to 25N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the front, particularly N of 26N E of front to about 46W. A ridge, anchored by a 1034 mb high located N of the Azores, dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast area. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are noted N of 27N and around the southern periphery of the ridge. Aloft, a ridge extends from the Caribbean Sea across the west Atlantic west of 60W. An upper-level low is spinning near 28N23W generating scattered showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR