000 AXNT20 KNHC 151132 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 8N13W along 6N19W to 7N24W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 9N33W 7N49W to 8N55W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 3N-7N between 10W-21W, from 7N-10N between 14W-18W, from 7N-10N between 46W- 50W, and from 7N-10N between 53W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A remnant stationary front in the south Gulf is beginning to weaken from a 1015 mb low inland over south Mexico near 18N94W north along 22N92W 23N88W to 24N85W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 21N between 91W-95W. A surface trough extends from southeast Mississippi near 29N89W to 26N87W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are south of 26N east of 86W across south Florida and from 21N-25N west of 92W to over Mexico. An upper trough is dipping south over the east CONUS to the north Gulf coast supporting a cold front that is currently moving across east Texas. The tail end of another cold front extends from the west Atlantic across Florida near West Palm Beach to just south of Naples to 25N83W. The Florida cold front will sink south and merge with the eastern portion of the stationary front this morning. The merged front will move out of the basin tonight as the front over Texas enters the northwest Gulf. This front will then stall and dissipate Wednesday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An elongated east/west upper ridge is anchored near 16N76W and covers the Gulf of Mexico and the west Atlantic. At the surface is a surface trough that extends from 17N82W to 12N81W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 11N- 17N between 74W-83W and south of 11N west of 79W. The monsoon trough is across the southwest Caribbean from Colombia near 11N75W 11N78W to across Costa Rica near 9N84W generating scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms south of 11N between 74W-79W. The remainder of the east Caribbean remains tranquil again this morning. A surface trough is approaching the Lesser Antilles along 59W from 9N-16N with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 9N-14N between 58W-62W with the heavier activity moving over the Windward Islands this morning. The east Caribbean surface trough will persist through the end of the week where a broad low pressure is expected to develop by the weekend. A weak cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late tonight and stall from central Cuba to Honduras by Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough extends from the Atlantic near 21N64W to the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic near 19N69W. This is generating isolated showers along the north coast of Hispaniola this morning. Afternoon showers will develop over the island today and Wednesday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean extends over the west Atlantic west of 65W. At the surface is a weak cold front that extends through 32N75W then across Florida near West Palm Beach. A deep layered low is over the west-central Atlantic with the upper low near 30N55W and the surface 1012 mb low centered near 29N55W. An occluded front extends from the surface low north to beyond 32N54W with a cold front extending south through 32N51W along 28N50W to 24N52W where it dissipates to 23N56W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are being generated by the upper low north of 28N between 51W-53W. An upper ridge to the east is providing diffluence aloft to generate scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms within 150 nm of a line from 18N54W 26N48W to beyond 32N48W. A surface trough extends from the Atlantic near 21N64W to the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic near 19N69W. A broad surface ridge covers the east Atlantic anchored by a 1035 mb high about 700 nm northeast of the Azores. An upper low over the far east Atlantic centered near 28N20W is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 26N-30N between 17W-21W including the western most Canary Islands. The west Atlantic cold front will continue southeast reaching from 32N68W to the southeast Bahamas by Wednesday morning then from Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos by Thursday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW