000 AXNT20 KNHC 150600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W to 9N22W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 8N33W 5N40W to 5N48W. A surface trough is approaching the Lesser Antilles along 59W from 8N-17N with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 10N-14N between 57W-61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 8N-14N between 50W-53W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 3N-11N between 10W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A remnant stationary front remains in the south Gulf extending from a 1013 mb low inland over south Mexico near 18N94W north along 21N93W 22N89W to 24N84W. Isolated showers are south of a line from 25N85W 22N90W to 19N96W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are east of surface trough that extends from 29N89W 26N87W to 24N87W to across the Floria peninsula and from 22N-26N west of 92W to inland over Mexico. A surface ridge is building south over the Gulf anchored by a trio of 1018 mb highs; one over south Mississippi, one off Florida near 29N86W, and the third off southwest Louisiana near 29N93W. The tail end of a cold front extends from the west Atlantic across Florida between Vero Beach to Fort Myers. The cold front will sink south and merge with the stationary front before morning. The merged front will move out of the basin Tuesday night. A new cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Tuesday night, then stall and dissipate Wednesday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An elongated east/west upper ridge is anchored near 17N77W and covers the Gulf of Mexico and the west Atlantic. At the surface is a surface trough that extends from 16N80W along 13N82W to 11N82W generating scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms from 11N-17N between 76W-83W. The monsoon trough is across the southwest Caribbean from Colombia near 11N75W 11N77W to across Costa Rica near 10N83W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 12N between 74W-76W and south of 11N west of 76W. A surface trough extends from the Atlantic near 21N65W through the Mona Passage to 17N68W. The remainder of the east Caribbean remains tranquil again tonight. The surface trough trough will persist through the end of the week where a broad low pressure is expected to develop by the weekend. A weak cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Tuesday night and stall from central Cuba to Honduras by Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are beginning to dissipate across the island tonight. Afternoon showers will continue over the island Tuesday and Wednesday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean extends over the west Atlantic west of 65W. At the surface is a weak cold front that extends through 32N76W then across Florida near Vero Beach and into the Gulf of Mexico. A deep layered low is over the west- central Atlantic with the upper low near 30N55W and the surface 1013 mb low centered near 29N55W. An occluded front extends from the surface low north beyond 32N53W with a cold front extending south through 32N52W along 27N52W to 24N54W continuing as a dissipating stationary front to 21N62W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are being generated by the upper low north of 28N between 52W-57W and within 30 nm of 52W from 26N- 28N. An upper ridge to the east is providing diffluence aloft to generate scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms within 150 nm of a line from 21N52W 27N48W to beyond 32N48W. A surface trough extends from the Atlantic near 21N65W through the Mona Passage to 17N68W. A broad surface ridge covers the east Atlantic anchored by a 1036 mb high about 600 nm northeast of the Azores. The west Atlantic cold front will continue east reaching from 32N72W to the southwest Bahamas by wednesday morning then from Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos by Thursday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW